The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

The worst poll for Cristina towards the 2023 elections: they measured her in four ballots for the presidential election and she lost all four

2023-03-15T12:54:52.993Z


It is a study of the consulting firm Escenarios. He also evaluated how his vote is distributed if he does not run.


It is one of the most important debates in the current electoral scenario and the most important, particularly within the Frente de Todos.

Does Cristina have to be a candidate?

Can she win her?

What if she doesn't show up? 

To address this discussion, a consultant undertook a

deep national survey

, starting with the vice president's announcement on December 6, when visibly angry at the 6-year prison sentence for corruption, she said she would not be a candidate "for anything."

The work was done by the firm

Escenarios

.

Directed by

Pablo Touzon

and

Federico Zapata

, both graduates in Political Science, it is one of the pollsters considered "independent" in the market.

In his presentation he adds: "We have offices in Latin America and Europe, which allows us to be up to date on the latest trends in the discipline. More than 400 national and international campaigns in 20 years."

The study that they disseminated now accumulated three surveys, between the end of 2022 and February 2023, with 4,817 cases throughout the country.

In the electoral field, they tested the vice president in the most complex test: an eventual ballot.

She was tested against four different opponents.

She lost with all four.

The announcement of the non-candidate and distribution of votes


The first question asked in

Escenarios

to those surveyed is how that vice announcement that he was running from the electoral fight impacted them.

From the result, one can already have a

parameter of their intention to vote

:

32.75%

answered that they felt very affected, because

"I would have liked to vote for Cristina"

.

A majority of

55.88%

, however, responded that it had no impact on

"anything, I had no thought of voting for Cristina"

.

And he completed

11.36%

of

"I don't know"

.

The following statement, one of the most sought after today, ponders where that support would go if the vice president does not actually show up.

Regarding this doubt, which was encouraged by the former president herself when she later installed the idea of ​​the supposed proscription,

more than half of those interviewed (51.94%) do not believe that she fulfills the promise

.

But if he does,

what happens to his votes?

Of the leaders of the Frente de Todos, the three who capture the bulk are

Alberto Fernández (28.12% of the total)

,

Sergio Massa (21.57%)

and

Axel Kicillof (20.28%)

.

Then, more relegated complete the also official

Wado de Pedro (5.17%)

,

Daniel Scioli (1.88%)

,

Jorge Capitanich (0.83%)

and

Juan Grabois (0.10%)

.

But the curious thing -or rather worrying for the Government- is that more than 10% would go with opponents such as Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (4.89%), Javier Milei (4.66%), Juan Schiaretti (1.76% ), Patricia Bullrich (0.30%) and Nicolás del Caño (0.10%).

Four ballots, four defeats


Another of the exercises that faces

Scenarios

in his poll on Cristina is

to evaluate her in ballots

.

It is presumed, based on what all the polls say today, that no party/candidate will be able to win in the first round (for which they would need a 45% or 40% plus 10 point advantage over the second) and that is why there will be a final heads-up like in 2015.

The consultant faces the vice with four opponents:

Mauricio Macri, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Javier Milei and Patricia Bullrich

.

She loses with all four

.

With nuances.

- Who clearly has the greatest advantage is Bullrich: he is 18.07 points ahead, by 52.51% to 34.44%.

They complete 11.1% of would not vote "for any" and 1.94% of undecided.

- Then comes

Macri: he beats him by 8.89 points

, by 44.43% to 35.54%;

with 17.54% "to none" and 2.49% undecided.

-

Larreta prevails by 7.31 points

: 42.40% to 35.09%, with 18.78% "to none" and 3.74% undecided.

-

Milei, finally, closes with 7.16 points in her favor

: 41.77% to 34.61%, with 21.62% "nothing" and 2% undecided.

So, should Cristina not be the candidate of the Frente de Todos?

nor

.

At the end, the poll returns somehow to the beginning and shows how the general vote for the Frente de Todos falls in a STEP without the vice.

In

hypothesis 1

, with it, the ruling party reaches

31.28%

, Cristina 19.86%, Massa 5.16%, Fernández 5.11% and Scioli 1.15%.

In

hypothesis 2

, without it, the FdT falls to

26.37%

, with 8.71% from Axel Kicillof, 6.76% from Fernández, 5.86% from Massa, 2.86% from Scioli and 2.18 % of Pedro.

Interesting debate for the next meeting of the Frente de Todos table.

If they cite it.

look too

K alert for a new survey: they measure Cristina's influence if she is not a candidate and there were surprising data

New survey and the most uncomfortable data: who are the mayors with the worst image of the Conurbano

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2023-03-15

You may like

Trends 24h

News/Politics 2024-04-18T09:29:37.790Z
News/Politics 2024-04-18T11:17:37.535Z

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.