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Moldova in Russia's stranglehold: expert sees Putin's plan with horror

2023-03-16T17:13:53.329Z


For a long time Moldova stood by Russia's side - now the country is orientating itself more and more towards the west. Is Putin's revenge imminent, as in Ukraine? Experts see a different strategy.


For a long time Moldova stood by Russia's side - now the country is orientating itself more and more towards the west.

Is Putin's revenge imminent, as in Ukraine?

Experts see a different strategy.

Chisinau - A small country in south-eastern Europe is currently the focus of the world: Moldova.

This is due to a strategy paper from Russia that has now reached a research team from NDR, WDR and

SZ

and shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin has a plan for Moldova.

He wants to encourage pro-Russian tendencies, undermine the government and prevent Moldova from turning further to the West and thereby eroding his influence.

Is Moldova threatening a fate like Ukraine's, possibly with a brutal military invasion?

dr

Katrin Böttger, director of the Institute for European Politics in Berlin, doesn't believe in it - but doesn't think it's impossible either.

“I also underestimated the scale of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

That's why I wouldn't rule out anything completely," said the Moldova expert in an interview with

Merkur.de

from IPPEN.MEDIA.

+

Russia's President Vladimir Putin in front of the Moldovan and Russian national flags.

© Imago (montage)

Expert on Putin's plan for Moldova: "That must horrify you"

Nevertheless, she currently sees the risk of a military invasion of Moldova as low.

Simply because Putin's soldiers are mostly tied up in Ukraine.

Nevertheless, the long-standing Moldova researcher does not leave the leaked strategy paper indifferent: “The points mentioned in it are not surprising.

Nevertheless, such strategic plans as to how influence is to be exerted on a sovereign third country must still be appalling," she says.

+

dr

Katrin Böttger, director of the Institute for European Politics, is not surprised by Putin's plans for Moldova.

© Private

The fact that Russia is operating in Moldova to prevent rapprochement with the West has long been a reality.

At least since 2020, when a pro-Western head of government, Maia Sandu, came to power, the Kremlin has been very nervous.

"Russian propaganda has increased massively in Moldova in the past two years," observes Dr.

Nadja Douglas from the Center for East European and International Studies in Berlin.

In an interview with Merkur.de

, she also sees

no immediate danger to Moldova's military security at the moment - "but a great danger for further destabilization measures and attempts at infiltration."

Since the Ukraine war, Moldova has been taking stronger action against Russia's propaganda

For a long time, the Moldovan government watched Russian disinformation campaigns relatively passively.

But since the war in Ukraine has raged, people have apparently woken up: "The government is now taking stronger action to protect the population from war propaganda and fake news." For example, the government revoked the licenses of several TV stations that disseminated Russian propaganda .

Propaganda spread through the media is just one form of Putin's use of influence to spread antipathy towards the West in Moldova.

"Russia is trying in a hybrid way to unsettle society and the state in Moldova," summarizes Nadja Douglas.

+

dr

Nadja Douglas from the Center for East European and International Studies fears further destabilization measures in Moldova by Russia.

© Annette Riedl (private)

Protests in Moldova: Demonstrators are taken to the capital by bus

The Russian state or pro-Russian Moldovan oligarchs apparently pay protesters to take to the streets against their pro-Western government.

The demonstrators are apparently being carted into buses from all corners of the impoverished country to the capital Chisinau to gather in front of the Presidential Palace.

However, Moldova expert Nadja Douglas points out: “Not all people who are currently taking to the streets are bought.

Many protest out of economic need.

They no longer know how to make ends meet in view of the dramatically increased costs and blame the pro-European government for this.”

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Demonstrators protest in Chisinau against the pro-European government.

© Rodion Proca/Imago

Moldova was almost completely dependent on Russian energy - Putin took advantage of that

With energy prices, Russia has a crucial lever of power in Moldova.

When the country sided with Ukraine after the Russian invasion, the acknowledgment came immediately: Putin cut off half of the gas supplies to Moldova.

This was all the more drastic for a small state, which at that time still drew more than 90 percent of its energy from Russia.

Like other countries, Moldova has since tried to diversify its energy supply and become more independent from Russia.

But prices are skyrocketing.

This is a dramatic development for the already impoverished population.

Economic pressure is also exerted on Moldova in other ways via Russia, according to Douglas: "Moldova is an agricultural country that grows apples, grapes and plums, among other things, and exports these mainly to Russia." Russian interests, Putin imposed an abrupt ban on imports under a pretext, according to Douglas.

In 2014, for example, when Moldova signed its association agreement with the EU.

And most recently in spring 2022 because of Moldova's position in the Ukraine war.

"It hit the country very hard," Douglas said.

Vladimir Putin: The political career of the Russian head of state in pictures

Vladimir Putin: The political career of the Russian head of state in pictures

Russia or EU?

Moldova appears to be deeply divided

Nevertheless, with the Ukraine war, Putin is apparently driving the post-Soviet state even more into the arms of the West.

"The country is still divided between those who support EU rapprochement and those who support Russia," said Douglas.

"But lately, people in surveys have tended to be more clearly in the direction of Europe."

Nevertheless, at least 30 to 40 percent of Moldovans are still oriented towards Russia.

"But the image that the Moldovans have of the Ukraine war is much more realistic than that of the Russians," says Douglas.

The small country felt the effects directly: rockets over Moldova, power cuts due to shelling in Ukraine and half a million Ukrainians who fled to Moldova and were welcomed there with a lot of solidarity despite their own poverty.

Military invasion via Transnistria?

“Kremlin has probably rejected the plan again”

And then there is the internationally unrecognized state within a state: the Transnistrian region broke away from Moldova after the collapse of the Soviet Union and has been recognized and supported exclusively by Russia since then.

Russian soldiers have been stationed there for 30 years, but their strength and size do not "pose a real threat," explains Moldova expert Douglas.

“There were probably plans in the Kremlin to open a second front from Transnistria, but they were rejected again.

As long as Russia is fighting with its soldiers in Ukraine, there will probably not be a new front in Transnistria."

(smu)

List of rubrics: © Imago (montage)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2023-03-16

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