Russia is reaching out to its neighbors with overt and subtle violence.
Experts are critical of this path: other means of influence "wither away".
Tbilisi/London - A separate "sphere of influence" - the Russian leadership around Vladimir Putin "really seems to believe" in this dream, the think tank Chatham House analyzed back in 2021. In fact, the goal behind the invasion of Ukraine was probably a Kremlin-friendly puppet government installed - at least that is what documents that have been made public in Russia suggest.
And in Moldova, reports of concrete Russian plans to destabilize the country are causing great concern.
So "influence" through brute force and covert violence?
A terrifying concept.
And possibly a counterproductive one too.
When asked by the British
Guardian
, several experts saw softer means of influencing its neighbors dwindling precisely because of Russia's ruthless course.
And sometimes even “shrink” the “world” accessible to the Kremlin.
Georgia, Moldova, Armenia: Russia threatens and rumbles - and could still lose influence
According to the report, there are signs of this in Moldova, in Georgia, in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also in Kazakhstan.
In Moldova, for example, the mood has turned in favor of turning away from Russian gas.
In the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, Russia's focus on Ukraine is leaving a vacuum that Turkish ally Azerbaijan is using to its advantage.
Even partners from the CSTO military alliance did not vote with Putin at the United Nations.
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Door closed: Vladimir Putin at a CSTO meeting - will he soon be alone in the Kremlin?
© IMAGO/Sergei Bobylev
There is no shortage of other examples of more or less open resistance: Kazakhstan had refrained from recognizing the Russian annexations in Ukraine.
And in Georgia, successful protests against an "agent law" based on the Russian model made the headlines - for the time being.
Even at a summit of former Soviet states a few weeks ago, Vladimir Putin was met with a rather unexpected coolness.
However, this was more likely to be seen in symbolic gestures.
So is the Kremlin on the wrong track?
Russia's cold grip on the ex-Soviet states: "soft power" - "hybrid aggression" follows
In any case, Bob Deen, researcher at the Clingendeal Institute, attested to the Russian government's change of instruments, away from "soft power" and towards tough measures.
In Moldova, for example, the country could count on connections to numerous politicians, a massive media presence and great affinity among parts of the population.
"All this is now fading away very quickly because of the aggression against Ukraine," he said.
However, experts do not only see armed violence as an attempt to take a hard hold of the neighbors.
Russia has pleaded "energy dependency, church dependency, media with hybrid aggression," political scientist Iulian Groza from Moldova's capital Chisinau told the
Guardian
.
Katrin Böttger, Director of the Institute for European Politics in Berlin, made a similar statement in an interview with
IPPEN.MEDIA
.
"A more recent form of Russian influence in Moldova is targeted disinformation campaigns in local and regional media, and of course on social media," she warned.
"This is increasing more and more and ranges from subtle shifts in emphasis in the portrayal of politics to clear fake news."
Ukraine war: "All security risks from Russia" intensified - Putin "only uses this brutal force"
Since the start of the Ukraine war, "all security risks from Russia" have increased, according to Groza.
In addition, government representatives are now also exploiting the fear of a “Ukraine scenario” and no longer just propaganda media.
The Kremlin's imperialist ambitions apparently also affect Moldova.
That leads some observers to unequivocal conclusions: "Russia has lost its 'soft power'," Georgian political scientist Kornely Kakachia told the
Guardian
.
"They don't know how to use it on their neighbors anymore.
They just use this brute force.”
"soft power"
The US political scientist Joseph Nye coined the term.
Means of "soft power" are attractiveness, shared values and norms and a role model function.
He stands in sharp contrast to "hard power", which is based on threats and the use of military force.
This approach could have its price.
Temur Umarow from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Kyrgyzstan noticed a waning sympathy, especially among the younger population.
Russia had long seemed "relatively stable".
"Now it's not seen as a role model to follow," he told the
Guardian
.
However, this did not go through to the political leadership of the countries concerned.
She behaves rather pragmatically - and tries to make the greatest possible economic gains from the situation.
In November, however, the British research institute RUSI saw Russia on the verge of seeing its sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space “wither away”.
In addition to concerns on the part of allies about sanctions and Russian weakness in regional alliances, the reason is also “eroding soft power”.
The year 2023 will show whether the Kremlin can again act as a mediator in regional conflicts - or whether Putin will have to rely on Belarus, which is also largely isolated.
Putin and Lukashenko on the diplomatic offensive - at least in the remaining scope
At least in Central Asia and with more distant potential partners, Russia and its allies continue to rely on "soft power".
This is shown by the Russian charm offensive against China, but also by the "alliance" efforts of Putin's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and a trip to Iran by the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko.
"Because the way west is blocked for Russia, they are increasingly interested in Central Asia," said Kassenova.
"Their world has shrunk - the space in which they can work and the scope for their actions." In Central Asia, however, Russia can continue to "work".
In January, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace also saw strong “soft power factors” in Russia in Serbia.
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