After the arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin, issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) this Friday for alleged war crimes, the question arises: how real is a scenario in which the Kremlin leader is arrested? and brought to justice?
By all accounts, the specialists consider, the chances of this happening immediately seem slim, taking into account that Putin would have to leave the territory of the Russian Federation to be arrested by any other country he visits.
In that sense,
the fate of the Russian president depends on the will of the international community
, since the court does not have its own police force.
The court, based in The Hague, Netherlands, said in a statement that Putin "is the alleged perpetrator of the war crime of illegal deportation of children," and accused him of illegally transferring children from occupied areas in Ukraine to Russia.
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In addition to Putin, the judges issued an arrest warrant for
Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova
, the Commissioner for Children's Rights in the Russian President's Office.
Piotr Hofmanski, president of the Court, indicated that it "is doing its part of the job as a court of justice" and that "its execution depends on international cooperation."
Stephen Rapp, a former ambassador-at-large who heads the State Department's Office of Global Criminal Justice, said in an email that the order "makes Putin a pariah," The New York Times
reported
.
"If he travels he will be arrested (...) This (the arrest warrant) never expires," he expanded.
This implies, the newspaper specified, that Putin could face arrest in the 123 member countries of the International Criminal Court, a list that includes almost all European countries and several in Latin America, but does not include China and the US.
Ukrainian refugees wait outside a temporary shelter, after fleeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Przemysl, Poland, March 29, 2022. Hannah McKay / REUTERS
Speaking to the Times, Philippe Sands, an international law expert and director of the International Center for Courts and Tribunals at University College London, said the warrant for Putin's arrest is bold.
"There are going to be a lot of questions about this particular crime and why the decision to go public now," he said.
The newspaper explained that unlike US courts, where suspects are charged before being arrested, Karim Khan, the prosecutor in Putin's case, presented the evidence before seven judges.
If Putin and Lvova-Belova were arrested, the Times said, and taken to The Hague, they would have an initial hearing in which prosecutors would present evidence for the case to go to trial.
If [Russian President Vladimir Putin] travels, he will be arrested."
stephen rapp former us ambassador
Harold Hongju Koh, a law professor at Yale University Law School, explained to the newspaper that if the suspects are not caught, they would never have that hearing to "confirm" the accusations.
As a result, Koh stressed, "this [in reference to the order] is the most we would get."
Michael Newton, a law professor at Vanderbilt University, stressed in statements to The Wall Street Journal that
the order against Putin opens an unexplored path in international law
.
He shows "that heads of state and military leaders cannot commit war crimes with absolute confidence that they will not be held accountable [for their actions]."
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According to Wayne Jordash, who leads teams of Ukrainian and foreign prosecutors and investigators on the Ukraine issue,
Putin is unlikely to end up in jail
.
But the event will affect the Russian president's ability to travel and negatively influence Russia's diplomatic efforts.
"It puts pressure on any of the countries that are signatories to the ICC and the Rome Statute [which led to the creation of the Court] to arrest you if you ever travel to those countries," Jordash told NBC News.
"These are countries that in the past may have been reserved about criticizing or voting against the Russian invasion in the [UN] General Assembly. I think it also puts immense pressure on Putin," he concluded.
