The war in Ukraine, an ordering factor in Europe

2023-03-20T09:26:39.442Z

There was excess of optimism: the primacy of the economy led to ignoring geopolitics. For a year now, the war installed in Europe is substantially modifying the continent's agenda. Some trends accelerated and new realities are beginning to be perceived: Brexit has just mutated, Germany redefined its foreign policy, a bloc of Euro-central countries led by Poland appeared, and in Russia "Asiatism", a pre-existing vocation, has gained an audience. Great Britain and the European Union

For a year now, the war installed in Europe is substantially modifying the continent's agenda.

Some trends accelerated and new realities are beginning to be perceived: Brexit has just mutated, Germany redefined its foreign policy, a bloc of Euro-central countries led by Poland appeared, and in Russia "Asiatism", a pre-existing vocation, has gained an audience.

Great Britain and the European Union have just signed the Windsor Agreement, which puts an end to a project that could have ended with the dismemberment of the Kingdom: Boris Johnson's dream of “Global Britain”.

Specifically, this Agreement means a virtual integration of Northern Ireland into the European Union market.

As often happens, it fell to the party in power, Conservatism, to bury a nationalist adventure that was leading Great Britain to a strategic devaluation, intolerable in a country accustomed to managing power and influence.

The polls show a collective change of mood regarding Brexit and thus the idea of a new consultation came to settle.

But readmission was a forbidden option, due to the costs and the time that had to be invested.

Symbolically it fell to a Prime Minister linked to the financial sector, Rishi Sunak, to disarm a project based on old unsustainable imperial passions.

In this way the British return to Europe at very particular moments.

The war installed an agenda where defense and security occupy a prominent place and there London has an unavoidable gravitation: a founding partner of NATO;

nuclear power;

member of the Security Council;

arms manufacturer and one of the countries that is providing the most aid to Ukraine.

This reset was inaugurated with the visit of the British Prime Minister to President Macron and will add to the scheduled first trip of King Carlos III, which will include Berlin and Paris.

In Germany, the war in Ukraine substantially modified foreign policy, defense policy and the economy, necessitating a true re-foundation of the post-war German national project.

This project was led by the Christian Democracy and anchored a defeated country to two structuring axes: European integration and the Atlantic Alliance.

It was a return to the world of democracy and the market, in a context of reconstruction where the economy played an important role.

The success of the "German model" made up for the humiliation of defeat and its external agenda bet on international trade.

Defense and security were not a priority and were "in charge" of the US/NATO until the moment of friction arrived: Washington demanded greater military spending.

When the cold war ended, Germany bet on "sweet trade", a space where the advantages of Rhenish capitalism were notable.

But there was excess of optimism: the primacy of the economy, in a reunited Germany, led the political class to ignore geopolitics by depending on Russian gas for energy.

That design died in Ukraine.

Now Germany, governed by Social Democracy, must completely review its policy: significantly increase the defense budget, change its energy supplier and listen to the request of its allies to help Ukraine militarily.

For that reason the renowned Leopard tanks will arrive on the battlefield.

In Central Europe the war in Ukraine revived a fear: the Muscovite ambition to enshrine the principle of limited sovereignty.

There always existed a doubt: is Russia a "normal" state or is it a "Eurasian imperial space"?

The Russian invasion of Georgia (2008) and Crimea (2014) was disruptive for the Baltic countries -victims of the Hitler/Stalin Agreement of 1939- and for the Euro-central countries, a geography whose national identity is defined against Moscow.

Within this historical framework, the role assumed by Poland, a key country in the war, is understood due to the aid it provides to kyiv, expressed in weapons, military training and economic resources.

Warsaw is Ukraine's military rearguard and its diplomatic advocate in a Europe where some countries have acted too prudently.

Decidedly, what is new is the prominence achieved by Poland, the transfer to the East of the European strategic axis and the disappearance of Nordic neutralism.

Finally, in Russia, although the technocrats who run the Central Bank have survived, the pressures against them have grown.

The “Putin model”, the sum of authoritarianism, liberal economic management and crony capitalism, seems to be questioned.

In his recent speech to the Assembly, Putin attacked wealthy businessmen in the West, for this reason the Asian economic currents, led by S. Glazyev, have strengthened.

The liberals intend to keep an illiberal country in the capitalist world, while for Academician Glazyev the future of Russia would depend on a Euro-Asian economic integration that includes China.

That thinking coincides with political theorists who describe the decline of the West and highlight the counterbalancing role that Russia should assume.

Ivan IIyin, a nationalist, deported by Lenin and rehabilitated by Putin, and Aleksandr Dugin, inspire in Moscow those who support the idea of a historical mission of Russia, associated with other uninhibited revisionist powers.

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