China's visit to Moscow: Xi Jinping isn't talking about Russia or Ukraine

Xi Jinping's trip to Russia is an attempt to act as a peacemaker.

When he meets Vladimir Putin, he tries a balancing act - and pursues his own goals.

This interview is available 

 as part of a cooperation with the 

 first published it 

 on March 21, 2023.

Moscow/Berlin – When Xi Jinping lands at Moscow's Vnukovo government airport, he quickly gets to the point.

"China stands ready to work with Russia to protect the world order based on international law," China's leader said in Moscow on Monday.

That gives hope – and at the same time causes concern.

Because at least the European order has been under massive pressure since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Fighting has been going on for more than a year, and China's attitude toward Russia so far shows little sign that Xi would be unduly urging his old friend Putin to end the war quickly.

On the other hand, China recently acted successfully as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia and presented a 12-point plan for a political solution to the Ukraine war.

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China: Xi Jinping in Moscow – Vladimir Putin allegedly wants to answer questions about Ukraine

"Of course Ukraine will be on the agenda," Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.

"President Putin will provide detailed explanations so that Xi can get the current perspective of the Russian side firsthand." The issues raised in the Chinese paper would "be raised one way or another" in the talks between Xi and Putin, he said Peskov.

In any case, the three-day meeting was “very important”.

During their talks in the Kremlin on Monday, Xi and Putin clearly agreed.

Moscow and Beijing have "many common tasks and goals," said Putin.

For his part, Xi paid tribute to his country's "close ties" with Russia.

"We are partners in a comprehensive strategic cooperation," said the Chinese head of state, according to Russian state television. 

There is no question that China has the potential to play a crucial role towards a solution to the war.

This is also the case in Ukraine.

There, the Foreign Ministry appealed to Xi on Monday to use his visit to Moscow for a peace solution.

"We expect Beijing to use its influence over Moscow to persuade it to end the aggressive war against Ukraine," said ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko.

But will Xi use his influence over Putin to do this?

In any case, China's “pro-Russian neutrality” does not indicate this.

Appropriately, the Chinese customs authorities reported on Monday that Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia as China's most important oil supplier this year.

China stands by Putin politically and economically

And politically too, China clearly backed Putin right at the start of the visit.

The Foreign Ministry in Beijing criticized the International Criminal Court (ICC) for the arrest warrant issued against Putin.

One should rather take a fair position towards Putin.

In any case, China will continue to play an objective and fair role in the Ukraine crisis and play a constructive role in the peace talks, said the spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Accordingly, Yurii Poita is looking to Moscow with skepticism these days.

"Xi's meeting with Putin shows that China will not distance itself from Russia," the Ukrainian political scientist told Table.Media.

On the contrary: Politics and trade are being deepened, and Russia is also being promised further economic and technological aid, the political scientist from the Kiev think tank 

suspects .

"China is far less sensitive than other countries to Putin's toxicity."

Poita also believes that China is quite ready to play a more active role as a mediator.

The problem: "On the one hand, Xi is hoping for concessions from Ukraine, but on the other hand he is not demanding that Russia withdraw troops from Ukraine." That's not how mediation can work, says Poita.

The secretary of the Ukrainian Security and Defense Council takes a similar view.

Oleksiy Danilov wrote on Twitter on Monday: The first and most important clause in a formula for the successful implementation of the 'Chinese peace plan' is surrender or

the withdrawal of the occupying Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.

Russia's War on Ukraine: Peace or a Frozen Conflict

In fact, here is the first serious problem in the Chinese Ukraine paper.

Vladimir Putin wrote in the Chinese People's Daily over the weekend: "Russia is open to a settlement of the Ukraine crisis by political-diplomatic means." However, Ukraine must acknowledge the "new geopolitical realities".

This refers to the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the occupation of four Ukrainian regions last year.

And Xi Jinping remains extremely vague in the People's Daily: "The document 'China's position on the political solution to the Ukraine crisis' addressed the legitimate concerns of all parties." 

Even the announcement that Xi wants to call Volodymyr Zelenskyy after the visit to Moscow does not convince Poita.

The appeal would certainly be an important element of diplomacy, but unfortunately it will probably not lead to any tangible result.

“Russia is not ready for peace negotiations, but is only trying to take an operational pause in order to gain a foothold in the occupied territory of Ukraine, recover and continue the military campaign.

But with no prospect of peace, Ukraine will not freeze the conflict as China would like,” says Poita.

China visit to Russia: What Xi Jinping really wants

Added to this are the recurring reports of alleged arms deliveries from China to Russia.

It's obvious that China is considering such an option, Poita said.

Beijing wants under all circumstances to prevent Putin from losing this war – and possibly from being overthrown as a result.

Supplying arms to Russia would completely destroy China's attempts to present itself as a peaceful, responsible and constructive actor, Poita says.

He therefore suspects a Chinese balancing act: In order to support Putin, China could covertly deliver weapons to Russia - for example via North Korea, Iran or Belarus.

One thing is clear: Xi Jinping is not concerned with Russia or Ukraine.

The Chinese leader sees the opponent in Washington.

And here he will carefully consider how he can best score in the competition with the USA.

Xi is attempting to square the circle in Moscow: On the one hand, he wants to position himself as an honest broker and leader of the Global South, while on the other hand he wants to secure the (economic and political) gratitude of a submissive Russia.

And last but not least, I would like to win the goodwill of Europe.