David Desgouilles is a columnist at
Marianne
.
He has published
Dérapage
(ed. du Rocher, 2017) and
Their Lost Wars
, (ed. du Rocher, 2019).
FIGAROVOX. - Would a dissolution of the Assembly allow the President of the Republic to start again on new bases, now that he has lost some of the Republicans?
David DESGOUILLES. -
All last week, before Thursday's 49.3, Emmanuel Macron's entourage broadcast the message in the newsrooms that he wanted to go to the vote and proceed with the dissolution in the event of the law not being adopted.
And then finally, he gave up, authorizing Elisabeth Borne to engage his responsibility.
Read alsoMacron under pressure to heal the wounds of 49.3
The head of state and his ministers often like to talk about “pedagogy”.
But precisely threatening a sanction – in this case dissolution – and finally giving it up, there is nothing more anti-pedagogical.
Isn't this proof that Emmanuel Macron fears the consequences of a dissolution more than the opposition groups?
This is the feeling he has just left his opponents and part of the public.
Conversely, could he lose his majority if he returned the deputies to the voters, and in particular his majority?
It is undoubtedly for this reason that the president - or the entourage who convinced him not to dissolve - is so afraid of new legislative elections.
But in this case, he should have refrained from brandishing this threat.
In order to come out on top of the current situation, Emmanuel Macron should reconnect with the original spirit of the institutions and appeal to the people.
There is another hypothesis, that of cynicism.
He could still intend to dissolve, but would wait for the violence to become generalized in the country to appear as a bulwark and therefore approach these elections in a context more to his advantage.
We find the poker player, as Charles de Courson called him this morning.
Sometimes we have the impression of finding ourselves in the Baron noir series, where Emmanuel Macron would see himself as a hero.
When we remember the final fate of President Dorendeu, he should still be careful, especially since reality is often more inventive than fiction, especially in its tragic sides.
Read alsoCharles de Courson, the deputy whose motion of censure links RN and Nupes
The Nupes, on Friday March 17, filed a shared initiative referendum (RIP). This procedure, after being validated by the Constitutional Council, must collect 4.87 million signatures to call a referendum. Is this possible in the current situation? In comparison, a million signatures had been collected for a referendum on the plan to privatize Paris airports…
In order to come out on top of the current situation, Emmanuel Macron should reconnect with the original spirit of the institutions and appeal to the people.
As he resigned himself not to dissolve, he could call a referendum via article 11. There again, it is not really the philosophy of the president, the government and their supporters, certain to be right against the people, who would not know what is good for him.
Read also“The shared initiative referendum is designed never to be used”
It is therefore up to the people to obtain this referendum.
Benjamin Morel explained in these columns that, although the RIP was designed not to be used above all, the exceptional conditions make its success possible this time.
If more than a million signatures have been collected on a subject much less mobilizing than the privatization of Paris airports, five million are quite achievable with the strength of the intersyndicale, the demonstrators of recent weeks, their families, etc
It would be quite a snub to the President of the Republic who has used all possible and imaginable articles of the constitution to force the hand of his opponents.
And that would show that the answer to all this can be constitutional and civic, much more saving than violence,