Mathieu Gallard is research director at Ipsos France.
THE
FIGARO.
- What to remember from the interview with Emmanuel Macron?
Matthew Gallard.
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The President of the Republic conducted an interview during which he showed himself to be both combative and determined, but I am not sure that is enough to relaunch his five-year term.
By taking on the pension reform and opening up perspectives on important new issues (work, reindustrialisation, immigration, etc.), it seeks to get out of the rut that was created for the government at the time of 49.3, but three major difficulties remain present: the first is that it will not be easy to get out of the pension episode, which has pitted a clear majority of French people against the executive, all the unions and all the parliamentary groups of opposition, even including almost half of the LR deputies;
the second, it
is that the method mentioned by Emmanuel Macron, which aims to seek agreements and compromises with the "moderate" opposition and with the unions, will be very difficult to make them swallow and that it is very likely to lead to an impasse when the next issues of the quinquennium will be discussed;
and the third is that the initial spirit of macronism that made the candidate successful during the 2017 campaign and the president when he emerged from the "yellow vests" crisis in 2019 seems to have evaporated.
There is hardly a strong and disruptive idea on the substance, and there is no longer any original method on the form, unlike for example the "great debate" of 2019.
it is very likely to lead to an impasse when the next issues of the quinquennium are discussed;
and the third is that the initial spirit of macronism that made the candidate successful during the 2017 campaign and the president when he emerged from the "yellow vests" crisis in 2019 seems to have evaporated.
There is hardly a strong and disruptive idea on the substance, and there is no longer any original method on the form, unlike for example the "great debate" of 2019.
it is very likely to lead to an impasse when the next issues of the quinquennium are discussed;
and the third is that the initial spirit of macronism that made the success of the candidate during the 2017 campaign and the president when he emerged from the "yellow vests" crisis in 2019 seems to have evaporated.
There is hardly a strong and disruptive idea on the substance, and there is no longer any original method on the form, unlike for example the "great debate" of 2019.
Faced with a social movement that is becoming more virulent and sometimes descends into violence, there may indeed be the temptation for Emmanuel Macron to defend "order", like Louis Napoleon Bonaparte in 1848 or a de Gaulle in 1968.
Mathieu Gallard
Emmanuel Macron notably accused the unions of not having offered a compromise. How to interpret this sequence?
There is undoubtedly the will for Emmanuel Macron to reunite his electorate, and even more his deputies, behind him, which is obviously essential in view of the wavering of recent days.
By targeting the unions, he therefore seeks to unite behind him against a common enemy.
But it would probably be more appropriate to target the elected representatives of Nupes and the LR deputies, Aurélien Pradié.
Indeed, the President of the Republic has therefore announced several major reform projects for the rest of the five-year term, during which he wishes extensive consultation with the social partners.
But how could the unions again get involved in negotiations with the government when they feel they have been completely
He also declared: “When the USA lived what they lived on Capitol Hill, when Brazil lived what it lived, (…) we have to say 'we respect, we listen' (. ..) but we cannot accept either rebels or factions”. Does Emmanuel Macron seek to embody the only alternative to "chaos"?
Faced with a social movement which, since the end of last week and the announcement of the vote on a motion of censure, has become more virulent and sometimes descends into violence, there may indeed be the temptation for Emmanuel Macron to the defender of "order", like Louis Napoleon Bonaparte in 1848 or de Gaulle in 1968. It is true that his electoral base, which concentrates more and more on pensioners than we know particularly sensitive to the issue of public order, could appreciate such a strategy.
But there are two risks.
First of all, the outbursts of the last few days are real but nonetheless remain relatively limited at this stage,
which makes the comparison with the events of the Capitol or of Brasilia at the very least daring and means that even the segments of the electorate most averse to disorder might not fully follow such a strategy of dramatization.
On the other hand, even if the violence becomes widespread, the risk for Emmanuel Macron is that public opinion will hold him responsible for it as the initiator of the pension reform, just as it had held Alain Juppé responsible for the blocking of the country. by the unions in 1995. Such a strategy of tension therefore seems perilous for the executive.
The big question is also who will benefit from this resentment.
Mathieu Gallard
Could this interview allow him to close the
current "
sequence
"
?
Could it have the opposite effect?
What we have witnessed since the fall is not a simple sequence that can be closed with a television interview with the Head of State then by the validation of the law by the Constitutional Council before drawing new perspectives of reforms.
In fact, the pension reform has had such an impact on public opinion because it will have extremely concrete consequences on millions of French people, which explains the level of rejection in the polls and the extent of the mobilization in the street. .
I do not necessarily think that the interview in itself will contribute to further strengthening the social movement, but it is certain that it will not allow to evacuate the deep resentment accumulated by a large part of the French against the executive .
The big question is also who will benefit from this resentment: it is often mentioned that the National Rally of Marine Le Pen will be the big winner in recent months, but this remains to be verified in the medium term.
First of all, the question of the competence of the RN in economic and social matters remains one of its main handicaps in attracting an electorate from the traditional right, and the discretion of Marine Le Pen and her deputies in recent months does not will probably not have allowed him to score points in this area.
On the other hand, the resentment or even the anger that boils in part of the electorate could not find the best way to express itself in a political party whose strategy aims above all at de-demonization and notabilisation.
A dynamic in favor of the RN is therefore not to be excluded, but it is far from being a certainty.
A democratic “disengagement” of an even larger part of the French after the record abstentions in all the elections during the previous five-year term is an alternative possibility that is at least as conceivable.