The government power system is suffering from two simultaneous problems.
One is economic, the other political.
The link between the two reveals
the dimension of the crisis
that afflicts the support of the Frente de Todos, the official coalition.
Those involved are Alberto and Cristina Fernández.
Together with Sergio Massa, the Minister of Economy.
The former mayor of Tigre decided to bury
an audacity
on his part as soon as he had two corroborations: inflation continues to rise in March, after 6.6% in February;
In 2023, the drought will deprive Argentina of at least US$20 billion derived from the agricultural sector.
Some US$12 billion more, the product of a climatic phenomenon similar to the one that hit the Mauricio Macri administration at the time.
Such a devastating reality led to the paralyzation of a public campaign of its renovating militants, incipient in the north of Buenos Aires and some neighboring neighborhoods of the City, with signs that read: "
Massa is stability"
.
This behavior was explained by several reasons.
Perhaps they are some of those that can be collected in a work by the consulting firm Equilibra, by the economist Martín Rapetti, one of whose founding partners is Diego Bossio, former head of ANSES.
There it is pointed out that the fall in agricultural production and the lower pocket of dollars will affect the supply of imported goods and inputs.
Safe trigger for increased industrial shrinkage.
He points out that the inflationary acceleration, on the other hand, will continue to liquefy income beyond the update of parities.
Because many service sectors already work with indexing.
That diagnosis could produce three effects.
It would objectively weaken Massa as the alleged organizer of official management.
It removes the possibility of a saving candidacy of the Frente de Todos for the October elections.
It reopens a messy debate in Kirchnerism about the direction to take in economic matters.
That weakness of the Minister of Economy was exposed in the last hours.
His announcement of an administrative intervention for 180 days in Edesur sought a replacement staging for other difficulties for which he has no solutions.
The measure came when the heat peak passed and the power cuts in sectors of the AMBA decreased.
That interventionism was too similar to the oversight imposed months ago, in the face of another crisis, when there was already an overseer.
Pure artifice.
Jorge Ferraresi, mayor of Avellaneda and controller of Edesur, with Walter Martello, controller of Enre, in dialogue with the Edesur authorities.
The truth is that Massa had to improvise the maneuver to avoid destabilizing the anchorage he maintains with Kirchnerism
.
Especially, with leaders of La Cámpora.
The organization, whose loudest figure is Deputy Máximo Kirchner, has begun to lose the hope that had been placed in the minister to face the election year with possibilities.
The campers bellowed for the days of protests and popular pickets due to lack of light with an ostensible
inaction
by the Government.
And great disclosure, as appropriate, in the media.
The minister's obligation to compensate for the internal situation of the coalition was so evident that he called on Alberto's former minister and mayor of Avellaneda, the Cristinista Jorge Ferraresi to carry out that precarious task.
What can you change in 180 days?
Nothing, except the possible benevolence of the ambient temperature.
The energy problem in Argentina is strategic.
It dates from the 2001 crisis and affects generation and the tariff schedule.
But Kirchnerism demanded "some gesture" towards the affected people.
La Cámpora, increasingly uncomfortable
The disenchantment of the camporismo with Massa was incubating as the minister aligned his policy to the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
He recognized a peak nine days ago when the body announced the approval of the fourth revision of the pact with our country.
He authorized a disbursement of US $ 5.3 billion and the modification of the reserves for 2023 due to the drought.
La Cámpora then issued a harsh statement that, however, had a particularity.
He saved Massa and charged into Alberto.
“The President said that we had the noose around our necks and that a way had been found.
Is this the way? ”He questioned.
The omission of the last name was a concession that did not mean the end of any problem for Massa.
Kirchnerism has once again discussed whether it is convenient to continue negotiating with the IMF unless there is a reformulation of the deal.
A break in the middle of the electoral campaign?
The minister clutches his head at the conjecture.
To which, unexpectedly, certain economists added fuel.
Emanuel Álvarez Agis, Axel Kicillof's former vice president, who has distanced himself from the K in recent years, also argued for the need to renegotiate the agreement.
He has been a shadow aide to the current finance minister.
Máximo Kirchner is the main detractor of Alberto Fernández and he does not hide it.
Photo: Fernando de la Orden
The camporista effervescence for the discussion would not be able to hide the main lack of the organization.
They object to Massa's only roadmap but, honestly, they have no other.
Or the one they have would end up blowing up their chances in the electoral dispute.
That's how locked up those leaders are.
Massa feels deeply uncomfortable in the midst of this climate.
Much more Gabriel Rubinstein, the deputy minister.
Weaver of basting with the bureaucratic staff of the IMF.
"Do you think that all these things are not known in Washington?" He used to say before each domestic dispute.
Cristina has also called for a renegotiation with the IMF.
But, unlike Máximo, her son, she does not believe that it is time to put Massa's permanence at risk.
He is the minister and potential candidate.
For now.
Even if the economy is bad.
The deputy, in privacy,
confesses to being willing to kick the board
.
Postulating Kicillof?
The governor of Buenos Aires does not want to.
He maintains, in that sense, the shelter of the boss.
The coincidence between the mother and the son happens at this juncture to seek
the displacement of Alberto from the electoral contest.
The President pretends to be distracted and performs the best duties for Cristina in matters of foreign policy.
The scandal with Ecuador is an example.
He continues to give air to Daniel Scioli so that his enthusiasm for the PASS does not decline.
With two pebbles and a stick Alberto supports the idea of re-election.
Very little but enough to do damage when he sets his mind to it.
If not, it is enough to observe how Aníbal Fernández, the Minister of Security, today his most faithful servant, filled the suburbs with gendarmes without Kicillof's knowledge.
To preserve Buenos Aires, they argue, from insecurity and drug trafficking.
Rosario is not alone.
look too
In February, exports collapsed 18.9% due to the impact of the drought
Wado de Pedro launched a chicana against Alberto Fernández and recognized that the Frente de Todos will define candidates in a STEP
