The
Javier Milei
phenomenon was triggering surprises in different parts of the country.
And he forced his main rivals to rethink strategies.
At first he put
Juntos por el Cambio on guard
, but analysts immediately warned that theirs exceeded the hard core of the opposition.
A
new poll
now investigated
where the support
for the libertarian economist for 2023 is coming from. He did it on the most sensitive terrain for politics:
the
province of Buenos Aires
.
And the
results
were really
striking
.
The study is from
Políticos en Redes
, a consultancy that specializes in the monitoring and analysis of social networks: since 2017 they have been tracking the intention to vote there.
But it also publishes more "traditional" surveys.
In 2021, for example, he was among those who predicted the triumph of Diego Santilli.
This month, between the 7th and 12th, they carried out a Buenos Aires survey of
864 cases
.
And they presented the results with +/- 3% margin of error.
The "executive summary" of the study highlights the following:
- "
Concern about 'inflation'
(35.6%) increases 7 points compared to February and is the
main problem for Buenos Aires residents
, followed by 'insecurity' (20.9%) and 'politicians' (11, 2%)".
- "
51.6%
of Buenos Aires residents consider that their
current general situation
is
'worse'
than last year."
- "
Cristina Kirchner
is the preferred referent of the voters of the Frente de Todos".
- "
Patricia Bullrich
is the main opponent and the favorite among Juntos voters."
- "
Javier Milei
is the benchmark that grew the most in voting intentions compared to February (+3.7 points)".
I vote for space and who gets Milei
Regarding the electoral measurements, the first thing the consultant does is ask
which space the people of Buenos Aires would vote for in this year's presidential election
.
With this result:
1) Front of All 36.6%.
2) Together for Change 29.1%.
3) Libertarians 18.6%.
Although the ruling party appears here with a light advantage over the margin of error -unlike other studies that show more parity-, it is far (very) from the gap it achieved in 2019, around 15 points, and It was essential for the national triumph.
Below the three most competitive, they close:
4) Peronism not K 2.7%.
5) Left Front 1.5%.
- Don't know 11.5
But the most interesting thing comes later, when he cross-examines the 18.6% who opt for libertarians, who they had voted for in the last presidential election. A way to discern who is "stealing" support from Milei. And although above that "Together for Change / Macri", the dispersion confirms that the economist is getting voters out of almost everyone.
His
current support in the Province
, always according to the data from Politicos en Redes, is
divided as follows
:
- Voted for Together for Change (Macri) 35.6%.
- Voted Awakening (Espert) 20.5%.
- Front of All (Fernández) 19.7%.
- 15.9% did not vote.
- Voted for PJ no K (Lavagna) 3.8%.
- 3.8% voted for NOS (Gómez Centurión).
- Voted for the Left Front (Del Caño) 0.8%.
How do you read this? Of every 10 votes that Milei would have in the Province today, 3.5 come from Together for Change, 2 from Espert and 2 from the Frente de Todos as the main tributaries
.
A powerful dispersion that alarms not only the yellow world.
look also
What the latest survey of the most anti-K consultant says (and one of Patricia Bullrich's favorites)
Rosario effect?
An electoral survey measured in Santa Fe and the Frente de Todos did very badly