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Fixed term: with the new rate, how much do you charge in 30 days for leaving $20,000, $50,000 or $100,000

2023-03-23T09:53:48.721Z


Banks now pay more interest on these deposits, but it is not certain that they can beat inflation. The UV option.


By official decision, banks throughout the country began to offer -both in branches and in their electronic channels- higher interests for the pesos that their clients leave in

fixed-term deposits

.

The

same capital

, in the same period, now generates

more profits

.

After knowing that inflation in February climbed to 6.6%, and that expectations of price increases worsened, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) decided to

reinforce the performance

of this popular investment, so that it does not remain outdated.

The entity ordered that small savers, for immobilizing their money 

for at least a month

, be rewarded with a

minimum nominal annual rate (

TNA

)

of

78%

, instead of the 

75%

that was in force until March 18.

Faced with this, what many wonder is what

specific profit

allows the new rate to be collected after 

30 days

if, for example, $20,000, $50,000 or $100,000 are invested.

The other big question is whether or not the promised interest could 

maintain the purchasing power

 of capital.


The Central Bank ordered a slight rise in interest rates.

Photo: Guillermo Rodríguez Adami.

Traditional fixed term: how much do you pay now in concrete amounts for a 30-day deposit?


According to the Banco Nación online simulator, a

30-day

fixed term  began to generate an

effective yield

of

6.41%

(prior to the change it was

6.16%

, which it lost compared to February inflation).

This means, with rounded values, that now for

example

:

  • Whoever deposits

    $20,000

    will get

    $21,282

    in one month: they will have earned

    $1,282

     (before it was $1,233)

  • Whoever deposits

    $50,000

    will be able to withdraw

    $53,205

    in one month: they will have earned

    $3,205

     (before $3,082)

  • Whoever deposits

    $100,000

    will collect

    $106,411

    in one month: they will have earned

    $6,411 

    (before $6,164).

Viewed another way, with

performance goals

:

  • To

    win $2,000

    in 30 days you have to deposit

    $31,197

     (previously it was $32,445).

  • To

    earn $5,000

    in 30 days, you have to invest 

    $77,992

     (before it was $81,112).


  • To

    earn $10,000

    in 30 days, you have to put 

    $155,983

     (before it was $162,223).

Fixed installments can be made both in cash and by ATM, home banking and apps.

Photo: File.

Does the new fixed term rate protect against inflation?

Since people usually make this investment for

30 days

and renew it each time -if it suits them-, the key is to determine if the new 

monthly profit

of the fixed term (6.41%) has chances of 

winning, equaling or losing

 against to inflation in the 

coming weeks

.


In this regard, the 40 consultants and study centers surveyed by the BCRA in its latest Survey of Market Expectations (

REM

) had predicted -at the end of February- that inflation would be

6.1%

in March and

5.9%

in April.


However, those forecasts soon 

became old

because the February index surprised even the most pessimistic (6.6% monthly and 102.5% annual), the remarks continued to accelerate in March and the economists once again adjusted

 their projections

upwards .

" March

inflation

is on track to close at 

7%

and

April

's  today we see it at

6.2%

, with a floor of 6%,"

 Sebastián Menescaldi, director of the EcoGo study, told

Clarín .

Gabriel Caamaño Gómez, economist at Consultora Ledesma, estimated that the price index will end 

at a minimum of 6.5%

in

March

and that "perhaps it will loosen something in

April

in the margin, with a

floor of 6%

or 

6.2%

".

With that perspective, then, a fixed term that is now made for 30 days between March and April could obtain a return

similar

to inflation

, with chances of slightly beating it in an optimistic scenario, but 

also losing

if prices go higher again. than expected.

"Today, clearly, making

a CER (UVA) fixed term

 is more convenient than a traditional one to hedge against inflation in pesos, at least in the short term," Menescaldi considered.

The reason is that this type of fixed terms, unlike the common one, 

never yields less

than inflation (although not much more).

With the UVA fixed term, the saver knows that he will not lose against inflation, no matter how much it is.

Photo: German Garcia Adrasti.

Fixed terms UVA: how is the option that guarantees maintaining purchasing power?

UVA fixed terms are so called because they work with a system of

Purchasing Value Units

.

When constituting them, the pesos

are converted

at the daily price into UVAs, which are a kind of currency whose value

is adjusted daily

according to the CER coefficient, at the rate set by the

INDEC

inflation index .

The biggest disadvantage is that the

minimum term

 is

90 days

, instead of 30. But after those three months, the UVAs are converted back to pesos at the current rate, which will 

exactly offset the

price increases in the quarter.

The value of the UVA, for example, increased

17.29%

in the

last three months

, and likewise updated the money of those who made a deposit in UVA on 

December 23

 for 90 days, to withdraw it just this

March 23

.

If it was

$100,000

, it became

$117,290

.

But also, in case of choosing the "

precancellable

" UVA option, the bank ensures a

real profit

, since it not only returns the amount adjusted for inflation, but also adds an  annual

interest rate

 of

1%

.

On the other hand, if the saver

suddenly needs

to use the money,

from day 30

they can get it back.

In this case, the prepaid fixed term will have paid as if it had been done in the traditional way with a TNA of

74%

(

4 points less

than the current one).

MDG

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Source: clarin

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