By official decision, banks throughout the country began to offer -both in branches and in their electronic channels- higher interests for the pesos that their clients leave in
fixed-term deposits
.
The
same capital
, in the same period, now generates
more profits
.
After knowing that inflation in February climbed to 6.6%, and that expectations of price increases worsened, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) decided to
reinforce the performance
of this popular investment, so that it does not remain outdated.
The entity ordered that small savers, for immobilizing their money
for at least a month
, be rewarded with a
minimum nominal annual rate (
TNA
)
of
78%
, instead of the
75%
that was in force until March 18.
Faced with this, what many wonder is what
specific profit
allows the new rate to be collected after
30 days
if, for example, $20,000, $50,000 or $100,000 are invested.
The other big question is whether or not the promised interest could
maintain the purchasing power
of capital.
The Central Bank ordered a slight rise in interest rates.
Photo: Guillermo Rodríguez Adami.
Traditional fixed term: how much do you pay now in concrete amounts for a 30-day deposit?
According to the Banco Nación online simulator, a
30-day
fixed term began to generate an
effective yield
of
6.41%
(prior to the change it was
6.16%
, which it lost compared to February inflation).
This means, with rounded values, that now for
example
:
Whoever deposits
$20,000
will get
$21,282
in one month: they will have earned
$1,282
(before it was $1,233)
Whoever deposits
$50,000
will be able to withdraw
$53,205
in one month: they will have earned
$3,205
(before $3,082)
Whoever deposits
$100,000
will collect
$106,411
in one month: they will have earned
$6,411
(before $6,164).
Viewed another way, with
performance goals
:
To
win $2,000
in 30 days you have to deposit
$31,197
(previously it was $32,445).
To
earn $5,000
in 30 days, you have to invest
$77,992
(before it was $81,112).
To
earn $10,000
in 30 days, you have to put
$155,983
(before it was $162,223).
Fixed installments can be made both in cash and by ATM, home banking and apps.
Photo: File.
Does the new fixed term rate protect against inflation?
Since people usually make this investment for
30 days
and renew it each time -if it suits them-, the key is to determine if the new
monthly profit
of the fixed term (6.41%) has chances of
winning, equaling or losing
against to inflation in the
coming weeks
.
In this regard, the 40 consultants and study centers surveyed by the BCRA in its latest Survey of Market Expectations (
REM
) had predicted -at the end of February- that inflation would be
6.1%
in March and
5.9%
in April.
However, those forecasts soon
became old
because the February index surprised even the most pessimistic (6.6% monthly and 102.5% annual), the remarks continued to accelerate in March and the economists once again adjusted
their projections
upwards .
" March
inflation
is on track to close at
7%
and
April
's today we see it at
6.2%
, with a floor of 6%,"
Sebastián Menescaldi, director of the EcoGo study, told
Clarín .
Gabriel Caamaño Gómez, economist at Consultora Ledesma, estimated that the price index will end
at a minimum of 6.5%
in
March
and that "perhaps it will loosen something in
April
in the margin, with a
floor of 6%
or
6.2%
".
With that perspective, then, a fixed term that is now made for 30 days between March and April could obtain a return
similar
to inflation
, with chances of slightly beating it in an optimistic scenario, but
also losing
if prices go higher again. than expected.
"Today, clearly, making
a CER (UVA) fixed term
is more convenient than a traditional one to hedge against inflation in pesos, at least in the short term," Menescaldi considered.
The reason is that this type of fixed terms, unlike the common one,
never yields less
than inflation (although not much more).
With the UVA fixed term, the saver knows that he will not lose against inflation, no matter how much it is.
Photo: German Garcia Adrasti.
Fixed terms UVA: how is the option that guarantees maintaining purchasing power?
UVA fixed terms are so called because they work with a system of
Purchasing Value Units
.
When constituting them, the pesos
are converted
at the daily price into UVAs, which are a kind of currency whose value
is adjusted daily
according to the CER coefficient, at the rate set by the
INDEC
inflation index .
The biggest disadvantage is that the
minimum term
is
90 days
, instead of 30. But after those three months, the UVAs are converted back to pesos at the current rate, which will
exactly offset the
price increases in the quarter.
The value of the UVA, for example, increased
17.29%
in the
last three months
, and likewise updated the money of those who made a deposit in UVA on
December 23
for 90 days, to withdraw it just this
March 23
.
If it was
$100,000
, it became
$117,290
.
But also, in case of choosing the "
precancellable
" UVA option, the bank ensures a
real profit
, since it not only returns the amount adjusted for inflation, but also adds an annual
interest rate
of
1%
.
On the other hand, if the saver
suddenly needs
to use the money,
from day 30
they can get it back.
In this case, the prepaid fixed term will have paid as if it had been done in the traditional way with a TNA of
74%
(
4 points less
than the current one).
MDG
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