Macrismo, its radical allies and the followers of Lilita Carrió today face a paradoxical situation:
they are as close to reaching the government as they are to splitting up before the presidential election
With a third danger embodied in the growth of Javier Milei, functional to the desperate needs of a groggy ruling party.
The growing dynamics of Rodríguez Larreta's confrontation with Patricia Bullrich, plus the unknown about Macri's future conduct, is tensing the situation in such a way that it can lead to an exposed fracture if the opposition drivers are not aware of the danger.
Until now, the prevailing criterion in Cambiemos is that
the ordering will magically come from the results of the primaries
without considering that the PASO are apt to elect candidates but not to settle leadership disputes.
In the first place, Macri spreads the uncertainty about his candidacy, which is encouraged by his most faithful squires, Miguel Pichetto and Jorge Triaca, among others.
As long as doubt persists,
confusion spreads downward
There are objective data, however, that are considered close to Macri.
One of them is the proof that the ex-President has a
high degree of rejection
in any of the polls that are at hand, and that the bastion of that rejection lies in Greater Buenos Aires.
Another is the conviction that only a "strong" candidacy (his) can retain the opposition vote and interpret the intense discomfort of the people with the economic and social situation of the country.
The third element is
protect themselves from Milei and her hunting excursions among the Together for Change voters
Everyone has noticed, for example, that in Córdoba the best positioned candidate after Schiaretti is the libertarian, as revealed by the governor in a private chat.
Javier Milei continues to grow.
In Córdoba they already give him as the best candidate positioned behind Schiaretti.
Photo: Juano Tesone
There is another central issue in the ordering of JxC and it resides in the fact that the internal confrontation prevents progress in any joint government project, convinced as they are that this time they
will receive a much worse inheritance than the one left by Cristina and Macri
, in their successive administrations.
A seasoned leader says that the few contacts that exist are made in a "semi-clandestine" state to avoid reprisals from their own factions.
The first step to reduce the risks of divisions would be to agree on common lists of legislators and that the only thing left in dispute is the presidential candidacy, a methodology that was used successfully in 2015, when an internal one was agreed between Carrió, Macri and Sanz, although the engineer was known to be the favourite.
The architects of those common lists were the radical and Emilio Monzó.
Sanz returned to the charge this week with the same objective in the long meeting he had with Macri.
The radical had not been with the former President for a long time, a dialogue that did not end well.
This time, due to the duration of the conclave (two and a half hours) as well as some of the issues discussed, it seems that he found more fertile ground in general and in more district issues such as Santa Fe, a province that Macri has just visited, in which the Losada's candidacy and the ex-President's indigestion with the socialists there continues.
Coincidence or not, Macri received Larreta shortly after to begin to define the candidacy of the City, a Buenos Aires testimonial candidate from Carrió was downloaded, and the belief is
consolidated that the PRO candidate will be Jorge Macri
He is asking for permission to be able to go with the different presidential candidacies of his sector.
Mauricio Macri advanced with Larreta in the definition for the succession in Capital, where he promotes his cousin Jorge.
Those who know say that on the thermometer of Macri's rejection of some leaders,
the one who reaches the highest level is Sergio Massa
In the ingredients of that hatred, they say, are the businessmen close to the Minister of Economy, although it is not known in what proportion.
The minister is at his worst moment and the only ephemeral joy was that a Tigre player scored a goal for the Italian team, in another example of unstoppable globalization.
To make matters worse, the friction with the President has become daily.
The use of the bonds from the retirees' fund with the endorsement of Cristina Kirchner has shown, once again, that
the story is already a pathetic memory
, as has happened with the marches of March 24, a rude and factious use, a trait central to Kirchner's nature.
It also shows the toolbox is getting smaller.
Massa has the handicap of showing the abyss to those who fight him by telling them that after him there is no one to take charge of this hell in the ruling party.
That game, however, is also running out of steam as the situation continues to deteriorate with astonishing speed.
The fireworks last less and less
To make matters worse, the "mischief", as a friend of Fernández's indulgently defined them, is inappropriate for the seriousness of the situation.
Fernández will now enter the Oval Room of the White House with Massa, as well as Cafiero and Ambassador Jorge Argüello, who worked tirelessly to make this summit possible.
Of those appointed, the Minister of Economy is the one who is best in tune with the White House and, above all, with Juan González, the head of Joe Biden's team for the region.
Everyone knows of the need for dollars that the Argentine economy has and of Cristina Kirchner's resistance to accepting a devaluation, even if it is taking place by sectors.
Once again, to camouflage the story, already perforated by multiple contradictions
The last resource they clung to seems to be the US Treasury, which arrives as the 7th Cavalry, to save them.
Kirchnerism's commitment to Massa for the elections is
another example of how they do the opposite of what they say
They are against the IMF but they support Massa, whose main program is precisely the agreement with the Fund.
The minister, like his hater Macri, also navigates uncertainty about his political future.
He is in the worst place at the worst time
Cristina, just in case, also enabled Scioli to go out and try his luck, and as a way of demonstrating that everything can happen again, in the worst way.
Javier Milei, the candidate who screams, grows and puts together a mysterious cabinet in the shadows
The great K week of the sanata: retirees are the ones who win