The climate crisis makes a global energy transition necessary.
But the transition could be particularly painful for oil states.
One country has therefore already positioned itself as green.
Bonn/Cologne – Globalization is a story of winners and losers.
It will be the same in the green transformation.
Because there is no doubt that the fossil age of coal, oil and gas is coming to an end.
According to the report "Megatrends of the Global Energy Transition II" by the environmental organization WWF, more than 80 percent of the newly installed electricity capacities worldwide are renewable.
Scandinavia is likely to be the clear winner of the energy transition.
Norway and Sweden are likely to produce a large percentage of the world's green hydrogen needs in the future.
They already own the infrastructure and have enough money to expand it further.
But the African continent also has enormous potential for renewable energy sources such as sun, wind and water.
Surprisingly, Saudi Arabia is also at the forefront.
The Gulf state, rich in oil and gas, is investing in green technologies to future-proof its economy.
However, for many of the other oil states, such as those in the Middle East, the energy transition will be painful.
In many of these countries, the economies are extremely dependent on the production and export of fossil fuels.
In view of this, Dr.
Tilman Altenburg from the German Institute of Development and Sustainability in an interview with the
Frankfurter Rundschau
by
IPPEN.MEDIA:
“Without adjustment, all oil-exporting nations will be losers in the long run.
But some that are already switching to new sectors, such as Saudi Arabia, can master the structural change, including through renewables and hydrogen.”
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Energy transition: Oil states face special challenges
Whether a country masters the structural change depends on the extent to which it is able to invest and restructure its economy today.
Scandinavian countries and the Gulf States can do that. They can make large investments and have the necessary technologies.
But many oil countries are poor and governed autocratically, for example Algeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria or Venezuela.
“It is no coincidence that the countries with the worst governance, the so-called bad governance, are often oil countries.
Oil revenues drive exchange rates so high that there is nothing worth exporting except oil.
That cements the dependency.
Many countries have gotten themselves into such corrupt regimes,” says the scientist.
The problem: If nobody buys fossil fuels anymore, the refineries and drilling concessions lose their value and bankruptcy threatens.
These countries are trapped in their oil dependency, says Altenburg.
High unemployment, poverty, migration and economic collapse could result.
But it doesn't have to be that way.
Renewable energies: Africa has great potential through sun, wind and water
In order to make the changeover worldwide, it is primarily the task of the global North to ensure through international investments and the provision of technologies that the necessary conversion does not make a profit at the expense of developing and emerging countries.
There is a clear advantage for poorer countries with rich potential for solar and wind energy sources: The European Union in particular wants to import a lot of green energy for its needs in the future.
In addition, investments in green hydrogen are already being made in African countries.
But, warns Altenburg: "Whether the projects benefit the local people depends on the conditions attached to the contracts - and what you do with the generated income.
Do they trickle away into corrupt deals, as is often the case in oil states, or does the flow of money remain transparent and is it used for the local population?” many households are not connected to the electricity grid,” says Altenburg.
Green energies could close these gaps.
Global South and Global North: Penalty tax for decarbonization creates tension
But the old conflict of justice between the Global South and the Global North remains.
A new point of contention is the so-called CO₂ border adjustment system of the EU.
This is intended to levy punitive tariffs on goods imported from countries that have less strict emission controls than Europe.
The reason: Those who rely less on expensive emission reductions can generally produce more cheaply - and thus undercut Europe in terms of price.
Among other things, the export country China will be affected by the future rule.
Not only Beijing is already criticizing the plans.
The justified accusation from the Global South: For decades, the industrialized countries have been emitting indefinitely in order to increase their prosperity.
They caused the climate crisis but are now banning developing countries from following the same path.
And this despite the fact that countries like China produce for us but have to account for the emissions themselves.
Energy transition: an opportunity for a fairer world
But it is also clear that the Global South in particular is already being severely affected by climate change - and can do little to counteract it.
In the face of the climate crisis, our Western growth model must under no circumstances be repeated by all countries in the world.
The energy transition is necessary and unstoppable.
But the North must not continue at the expense of the South.
Despite all these hurdles, the green transformation gives reason to hope that it is possible to break the spiral of injustice, at least partially.
According to the WWF, there is potential for an “overall fairer world” as a result of the energy transition.
Under one condition, as stated in the report: "Germany and the Global North are called upon, not least because of their historical responsibility for the climate crisis, to technologically advance this system and technology transfer - as well as the development of the energy systems of the future in the Global South and financially secure.” The climate does not wait.