With a somewhat exaggerated but attractive title ("What do Argentines think and feel about the current political situation in the country"), the consulting firm
Taquion
published its latest
"National Monitor"
a few days ago .
It is a firm already established in the world of politics, generally reluctant to publish electoral forecasts.
But in this recent study
he addressed the issue of the presidential election in a particular way
.
On page 12 of the report, the following statement appears: "Taking into account the following political leaders,
do you think they should run for president?
"
With three response options ("yes, definitely"; "yes, it can be"; and "no, his time has passed"), those who had to go through the filter were
Cristina Kirchner, Alberto Fernández and Mauricio Macri
.
The current president fared worse than all:
he finished with
76.5%
"
no"
.
In this category, it was followed
by vice
, with
70.5% rejecting it
but with 19.4% saying "yes, definitely."
Macri's thing was slightly better
:
65.8% thought that it should not be presented
, against 9.4% of strong support and just under 25% of "yes, it can be."
The latest national Taquion survey.
Most want Cristina, Macri and Alberto off the lists this year.
These numbers, which
bring Macri quite close to the Fernández
, come from the recent decision of the founder of the PRO to withdraw from the 2023 presidential race. The congratulations and relief shown by the opposition leadership for the announcement (
except for Miguel Pichetto and a a handful more
, who kept asking him to introduce himself) seem to coincide then with a broad sector of society.
But the data collides in some way with the story with which the macrismo sought to decorate the landslide.
According to what the former president himself conveyed in private, if he ran as a candidate
"he would comfortably win PASO and in a ballot with Kirchnerism he would also prevail
. "
But
did the polls really say that?
In addition to the
Taquion
study , Clarín analyzed
about a dozen polls from six consultants
that evaluated Macri's electoral potential at the national level and also made cuts in the main districts such as CABA and the provinces of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Mendoza and Santa Fe. .
The results of these surveys do not support the Macrista hypothesis. The former president, in general, appeared below the most competitive PRO options such as Horacio Rodríguez Larreta or Patricia Bullrich. And he had a strong rejection ("I would never vote for him") that questioned his competitiveness in a second round.
With an
important asterisk in favor of the ex-president
: pollsters and Macri's own rivals agree that if he had effectively launched himself, other leaders would have dropped out (María Eugenia Vidal for sure, Bullrich perhaps?) and the internal rearrangements would have forced re-measure, possibly with the much better positioned PRO leader.
It will remain in theory: the reality is that the polls that have been released in recent months (many commissioned by Larreta, by the way) did not do so well for Macri and he finally decided to get off.
In the national government
,
they had even stopped considering him as a candidate since the beginning of the year
, as if they were already certain that he would not run.
They do continue to evaluate his image and, according to all the polls, Macri clearly has more negative than positive.
PS: Nor do they usually measure María Eugenia Vidal in La Rosada, as if they sensed that the fight would actually be between Bullrich and Larreta.
Macri floor and ceiling
One of the surveys that circulates in the Buenos Aires government and measured
the electoral potential
of the main candidates, had
Macri
with a
"sure vote" of 10%
and a
"probable vote" of 22%
, which gives him a
ceiling of 32 points
.
The limit is set by the rejection, the "I would never vote for him", which exceeds 60 points.
The latest national survey of Opina Argentina.
He measured floors and ceilings of the main candidates and Macri was last.
Opina Argentina
, another consultancy that measures for Larreta and also has clients in the ruling party such as Juan Manzur and Axel Kicillof, published another face-to-face survey days ago.
There he also evaluated floors and ceilings and
Macri fared even worse: he finished last, with 6% "sure vote", 19% "probable vote" and 73% "I would never vote for him"
.
In this category, the most uncomfortable, he surpassed Cristina and Alberto, who were left with 68% against.
The latest CB survey in Mendoza.
He measured presidential STEP.
The latest CB survey in the province of Buenos Aires.
He measured presidential STEP.
The last CB survey in Santa Fe. He measured PASO presidential.
Another pollster that has been measuring a lot is
CB
, with clients in the interior, like Juan Schiaretti from Cordoba, and also in Buenos Aires, like Larreta.
Clarín
was publishing last week its polls for a presidential STEP in the five districts that define the election due to their size: the two Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, Córdoba and Mendoza.
In no Macri led the inmate of Together for Change.
In Córdoba, the former president was second below Bullrich and third in the other four, also with Larreta on top.
The latest CB survey in Córdoba.
He measured presidential STEP.
The latest CB survey in the City of Buenos Aires.
He measured presidential STEP.
A consultancy that circulates more in the official media, called
Circuitos
, also evaluated it in a Buenos Aires presidential STEP, in two scenarios, with and without Cristina: in both Macri appears relegated.
The last survey of Circuits in the City.
Measured presidential STEP.
The last survey of Circuits in the City.
Measured presidential STEP.
The last survey of Federico González in the province of Buenos Aires.
Measured presidential STEP.
And the most recent is another study by a firm closer to Peronism, led by the analyst
Federico González
.
In this case, he evaluated primaries in the
province of Buenos Aires
and
Macri is also third in JxC there
, behind Bullrich and Larreta.
Although, as explained, these were
improbable scenarios
(with four PRO candidates, for example) and
still far from the election
, in general the numbers did not sit well with the former president.
look also
Why Mauricio Macri announced now that he will not be a candidate and the other news that can shake the PRO
The privacy of Mauricio Macri at the marriage of María Eugenia Vidal, hours before lowering her presidential candidacy
