Deep black with green dots: This is how Bavaria looked after the last state election.
In 2023, too, the CSU will probably dominate the constituencies.
However, the map could be a bit more colourful.
The tightest forecasts are in Munich.
Munich – The blackest places in Bavaria, right here they have to be: the State Chancellery on Franz-Josef-Strauß-Ring!
The Ministry of the Interior, the Ministry of Farming, especially the CSU state leadership in Schwabing!
All of these Munich points, and a few more ministries, have one great, surprising thing in common: They are in the middle of the greenest voting circles.
This has been the case since 2018.
Politically speaking, a thick green band runs through the state capital from north to south.
In the state elections, the Greens won five of the nine constituencies directly, tricking the CSU.
Partly as high as a house, partly as sharp as a hair.
That's why the state elections on October 8th are almost nowhere as exciting as in the city.
There is a lot going on politically.
Bayern election: The Greens are the favorites in front of the CSU
Anyone who has known Bavaria has known for decades: In the cities, with a lot of fluctuation and an urban audience, the CSU has a hard time.
In Munich, where the SPD has ruled with few breaks since the war, the Greens have blossomed into the most dangerous opponent of the CSU in state and federal elections.
Here they run with their celebrities.
Exemplary case: In the Mitte constituency, parliamentary group leader Ludwig Hartmann received around 45 percent, one of the best first-vote results that a Green party ever got anywhere in Germany.
The 44-year-old does not have to tremble in 2023 either.
At best, the question is whether the FDP candidate Susanne Seehofer will take a few percent off him.
Susanne Hornberger is fighting for votes for the CSU in an inner-city environment that is very difficult for Christian Socialists.
The Schwabing voting district is also considered safe.
Since the Munich Bund nature conservation chief Christian Hierneis easily hangs from the ex-ministers Ludwig Spaenle (CSU) and Wolfgang Heubisch (FDP).
Milbertshofen is also considered safe by the Greens for co-group leader Katharina Schulze;
likewise Giesing for Gülseren Demirel, even if SPD leader Florian von Brunn is taking over here.
Narrow districts: Here the CSU must tremble before the Greens
It gets more exciting elsewhere.
Munich's CSU boss Georg Eisenreich is applying again in the southwest, where he has won uninterruptedly since 2003.
But last time by less than two points.
His opponent is the young Green Florian Siekmann, who tried to make a name for himself in the media by working in investigative committees.
A lot is at stake for Eisenreich.
The justice minister must fear the end of his political career if he no longer gets into the state parliament.
Munich currently has two ministers in Eisenreich and Markus Blume, but ex-mayor Josef Schmid also has ambitions behind them.
The voting circles of Schmid and Blume are still considered relatively safe for the CSU.
Plan B for those who failed is to get into the state parliament via the list.
After all, Eisenreich has the top place 2 behind Ilse Aigner, but no certainty whether in the end a place on the list will come into play in the complicated electoral law.
Things could get really tight in the former SPD stronghold of Moosach, where in 2018 a young Green won by a hair's breadth who didn't even live there.
Benjamin Adjej remained inconspicuous in the state parliament for five years.
The CSU wants to bring back the constituency with the local politician Alexander Dietrich, who is rooted here.
CSU dominance in the countryside - a few narrow constituencies far from Munich
There are few focal points in the 82 constituencies beyond Munich.
The CSU lost one of them in Würzburg in 2018.
Some Greens are squinting at Erlangen this year.
In the student city, attempts are being made to take away the direct mandate from CSU heavyweight Joachim Herrmann, the Minister of the Interior.
Whereby the choice, whoops, is still in the semester break.
In Freising, where many airport skeptics live and where there is traditionally a strong green base, State Chancellery Minister Florian Herrmann (CSU) is seriously challenged.
This time Helmut Markwort (FDP) could rob him of a few votes.
There is high tension in Landshut.
Free voter boss Hubert Aiwanger is said to have good chances of getting a direct mandate.
He is running for the first time as Vice Prime Minister and travels a lot in the country.
There was never a FW direct mandate in Germany, CSU candidate Helmut Radlmeier is not considered a stunner.
Observers say that where things get tight, both parties have started campaigning early.
The CSU wants to appear more uniformly in Munich, not a gaudy mix of posters like in 2018. The diesel driving ban is seen as a winning topic.
However, it remains to be seen whether Markus Söder's tough anti-Green course will catch on in the liberal city.