Among the multiple and important problems facing the agreement between Vice President Cristina Kirchner and Minister Sergio Massa is that there are
three key cards reversed
The inflation that this month
points to 7%,
beyond the erroneous ministerial forecast that in April the increase in the cost of living would begin with 3, confirms the failure of a repeated scheme despite having delayed fundamental variables.
This year, with the official
, and salaries running behind, inflation aims to exceed 100% and, on top of that, the dreaded
appeared : the drought.
, which was harvested between December and February, had a 45% cut in quantities and that of corn and soybeans, more important in terms of activity and currencies, would fall 25%.
Experts say that the drought is comparable to that of 2018 when the economy fell 2.6% and to that of 2009 that determined a drop in GDP of 5.9%.
Forecasts are reset towards a pronounced decline in activity.
The estimate of a US$ 15,000 million drop in income from agricultural exports is widespread, but the consequences are beginning to be felt intensely in these weeks.
The fact that the Central Bank has had to sell more than US$1.5 billion so far in March, and with no prospect of reversing that result, fuels the rumors about the imminence of another soybean
confirmed that in April he will start a series of "special" dollars to favor exports of wine and regional products, but they will hardly cover a third of the losses due to the drought.
In addition, the controversy and prosecution surrounding the exchange of bonds in dollars for others in pesos with public organizations entered a risk zone.
Now an opinion from the UBA is missing on whether or not this exchange harms the Sustainability Guarantee Fund in what it does to the money of retirees.
And its implementation has been delayed, in addition, the exchange already has a presentation in court against the President and the Minister of Economy for "abuse of authority and breach of the duties of a public official."
And as if that were not enough, the bonds have fallen 11% since the exchange was announced.
In Economy they recognize that
the moment is delicate
and that the lack of dollars will not yet be resolved with the US$5.200 million that they expect the IMF to disburse in the next few days and that they will be allocated (US$2.700 million) to pay the organization itself.
Regarding the fulfillment of this year's fiscal goal with the IMF (1.9% of GDP for what they should save for the equivalent of one point of GDP) the technicians know, although they will never say it, that their ally is
of more than 100% that will help them to liquefy the expenses.
But they will not be able to hide the
rise in public spending
due to the recent pension moratorium that will take the equivalent of 0.4% of GDP and that is a problem for Massa, although not the most pressing one.
The latest report from Marina Dal Poggetto's EcoGo
says that "the creation of pesos in the following months, especially if the Central Bank is forced to buy a significant part of the almost $5 trillion that, even after the exchange with banks expire before PASO (August 13), complicates the exchange trajectory".
And he remarks: "today there are almost $12 trillion in remunerated liabilities (Leliqs, repo operations with banks, etc.) which, with an effective rate that the Central raised to 113%", leads to the quasi-fiscal deficit multiplying by four
to fiscal deficit"
Known as the
"mountain of pesos"
that accumulates due to the actions of the Central absorbing pesos so that dollars are not bought, it constitutes a latent threat of issuance and inflation.
do not see any serious drawbacks
in refinancing the debt in pesos beyond July.
They understand that it is in self-defense and possible stabilization in an electoral year and despite the fact that the opposition warned about public debt in the pre-electoral period.
Together for Change,
Together for Change,
he questioned the fulfillment of the commitments for the debt in pesos in case of winning the elections.
insists that, if he gets to the ballot, he will propose a dollarization scheme (the business world is very concerned).
Everything, in the midst of the manifest shortage of foreign currency held by the government.
In this context, financial operators are waiting for a classic movement of election years based on a question: what will be the currency
mechanism that Massa will propose to the market as a way to avoid a jump in the dollar?
Will there be a future dollar, as in the past? Or will the dual bonds that offer the highest income between inflation and devaluation be the ones in charge of containing the pressures?
From 2019 to 2022, exports in values grew no less than 50%, going from just under US$60,000 million in 2019 to more than
US$90,000 million in 2022
This allowed the economy to avoid a recession beyond the government's management and the crisis unleashed by the resignation of Economy Minister
and the fierce internal government.
On that occasion, the improvement obeyed the white swan of good international prices, now it was the turn of the black swan of drought.
Before he spent more, now he covers holes.
The five biggest risks facing the Argentine economy according to a global consultancy
Bond exchange: the UBA will carry out the audit and the opinion could be ready in three weeks