If so-called generative artificial intelligence (AI) applications, such as ChatGPT or DALL-E, amaze with their infinite possibilities, they could also worry some workers.
A study by Goldman Sachs published this week estimates that 300 million jobs around the world could disappear as a result of the development of these technologies.
In detail, economists from the famous American investment bank have calculated that around two-thirds of professions in the United States are “
exposed to some degree of automation by AI
”.
And that “
a quarter of current work tasks could be automated by AI
”, both across the Atlantic and in Europe.
The most exposed professions are logically the office professions.
Those related to administration (46%) and law (44%) in the United States, while in Europe it is jobs related to administration and support functions (45%) and executives and skilled professions (34%) who are most at risk.
Extrapolating to the entire world, this study estimates that “
18
% of work worldwide could be automated by AI
”, with higher exposure in developed countries than in emerging economies.
This rate indeed reaches more than 25% in Japan, Israel or Hong Kong, but peaks at less than 15% in India, Kenya or Vietnam.
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A potential GDP increase of 7%
The corollary of these potential job losses caused by AI being a boom in productivity, points out Goldman Sachs.
In the United States, the rise could reach just under 1.5 percentage points per year, but not immediately, only about ten years after widespread adoption of these technologies.
An estimate that remains uncertain, points out the study.
"
But in most scenarios, (the rise) would still be economically significant
," she says.
The estimate is almost similar at the global level (1.4 percentage points over a period of 10 years).
As a result, AI could lead to a 7% increase in annual global GDP, according to Goldman Sachs.
"
While the impact of AI will ultimately depend on its capabilities and timing of adoption, this estimate highlights the huge economic potential of generative AI if it delivers on its promise," the report concludes
. report.
