It has already been said: the 40 years that have passed since the democratic restoration can be divided into two halves and the second can be named as the political force that set the pace of the disputes and competitions of the period.
Something more can be said about the Kirchner era.
The marriage that incarnated it built
a questioned hegemony
.
In these twenty years
there have been ten national elections, and Kirchnerism has lost five
.
That symmetry is broken if only the last five elections are taken into account.
In this period, it can be seen that Kirchnerism lost in 4 of the 5 turns
: it only won in 2019, and that victory served to cut Mauricio Macri off the possibility of his re-election and to confirm that the era deserves the name with which it was designated. .
Another way of showing this phenomenon is to mention the novelties that appeared in the most recent elections.
In 2015, Together for Change showed that it could win against a divided Peronism, at that time separated between Kirchnerism and Sergio Massa's Frente Renovador.
In 2019, the novelty was that the unified Peronism in the Frente de Todos was enough to win.
In 2021 there was another novelty: the unified Peronism lost against a divided opposition
.
That political decline of Kirchnerism is now with a statistical novelty that was released yesterday.
INDEC reported -in
an old photo that will become much worse when the numbers for the first half of this year are known-
that poverty reached 39.2% at the end of last year.
That percentage is already higher today, and it is very likely that it will exceed the record of the Alberto Fernández government, which was 42.2% registered in 2020, in the months of isolation due to the pandemic.
The INDEC figures, if projected to the entire country, indicate that there are 18,800,000 poor people, of which 3,800,000 are indigent.
The fact that Kirchnerism should worry the most is that
the social situation is even more desperate in the Buenos Aires suburbs
, the place where the vast majority of its voters live.
In the surroundings of the Federal Capital, 45% of the people are poor, which presages that this year, with the inflationary acceleration of the first quarter, half of the inhabitants of those districts of the province of Buenos Aires will be poor.
Argentina experienced worse moments only in the moments that followed the two great economic crises that the generations living today witnessed.
In 1990, at the end of hyperinflation, poverty throughout the country climbed to 47.5%.
In 2002, the tail end of the collapse of 2001, it reached 57.5%.
It should also be said that this second peak occurred when the economic plan that had made it possible to de-escalate the first of those ceilings collapsed.
It is also noted that the relapse
ended up being much more devastating than the initial illness
.
Today it is quite clear that the economic organization that supplanted the convertibility that exploded at the beginning of the century -Kirchnerism in its different variants- no longer exists.
The international conditions that made the entry of dollars possible at the beginning of the era are not in place, the inherited infrastructure was left small and the State does not have what to distribute or how to channel new transfers from the most productive sectors to the least integrated part of the population.
That coincidence,
that of Kirchnerism barranca abajo and that of poverty on the rise
, that of the impoverished voter himself and the evaporated economic model, explains itself:
the end of the cycle is like that
.
look also
Poverty in Argentina rose to 39.2% despite the rebound in the economy and the increase in employment
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