When all the spotlights are concentrated on the inmate of Juntos por el Cambio, and more specifically of the PRO, to assess how Mauricio Macri's run for the 2023 elections
impacts votes, a new survey that
Clarín
accessed
this
Monday
brings great Surprise:
the one that fell the most between the before and the after was Cristina Kirchner
.
The study is by
Federico González
, a consultant more closely linked to Peronism and Kirchnerism, who in previous elections measured for Sergio Massa.
Between March 27 and 29, he carried out a national survey of
1,800 online cases
, with +/- 3.5% margin of error.
The poll pondered the fight for space and two primary scenarios (they will be on August 13), with and without the vice president.
And then, based on the results that did include the former president, he made a
comparison with the previous measurement to see the impact of Macri's departure.
The fight for space and two scenarios STEP
In the evaluation by political forces, the numbers of
Federico González
continue to show a
staggering of three, with Together for Change at the top, the Frente de Todos second and the Libertarios clearly third
.
This differs from other works that propose a more even fight between these spaces.
Especially with Javier Milei threatening the ruling party to go to a possible runoff.
The last national survey of Federico González.
How is the fight for space for the 2023 elections.
In the numbers of this survey, the coalition of macristas and radicals leads with 31.5%, followed by the Frente de Todos with 25.2% and the Libertarios with 15.2%. Non-K Peronism completes with 4.6% and the Left Front with 3.3%; plus "others" with 4.8%, "blank" with 5.3% and "don't know" with 10.1%.
Then the consultant raises the
first hypothesis of STEP
, with Macri plus a large number of applicants.
So much so that the results are broken down into two pages.
The report clarifies:
"As we usually do from this consultancy,
we tend to measure the largest possible number of candidates or pre-candidates
. In order to define the list to be surveyed, the following
criteria
were taken into account :
• The candidate has declared that he will present himself as such.
• Although he has not made it explicit, the candidate carries out actions that can be classified as campaign actions.
• Although he has not made it explicit, the political analysis allows us to conjecture the possibility that the pre-candidate presents himself as such".
Thus,
the Frente de Todos appears with eight names, Together for Change with seven
, the Left Front with three and Peronismo no K with two.
With what results?
The last national survey of Federico González.
How is the fight on the STEP stage for the 2023 elections.
The last national survey of Federico González.
How is the fight on the STEP stage for the 2023 elections.
-
In JvC Patricia Bullrich prevails with ease (20.7%)
.
Below are
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (10%), Facundo Manes (2.5%), Gerardo Morales (2.3%), María Eugenia Vidal (1.2%), Elisa Carrió (1%) and Miguel Angel Pichetto (0 ,5%)
.
Statistical clarification: the study was done online,
a methodology that is supposed to benefit more "tough" candidates, such as Bullrich
, because the most informed and active public of the crack responds.
In any case, it is also true that in almost all the polls the former minister is on the rise and the Buenos Aires head of government is somewhat more stagnant.
Open discussion.
-
In the FdT, Cristina leads with 15.9%, followed by Sergio Massa (8%) Alberto Fernández (4.1%), Daniel Scioli (0.9%), Wado de Pedro (0.8%), Jorge Capitanich (0.4%), Juan Manzur (0.2%) and Juan Grabois (0.2%)
.
In the total sum by space,
Juntos is almost eight points ahead of the ruling party
: 38.2% to 30.4%.
Third is
Milei
, the only representative of the libertarians with
16.9%
.
The rest close with marginal numbers.
The last national survey of Federico González.
How is the fight on the STEP stage for the 2023 elections.
In the
second hypothesis, without Cristina, there are small differences.
JxC totaled 37.3% (with Bullrich in the lead -19.7% and Larreta second -9.8%-).
And in the FdT the vote is dispersed a little more: a total of 29%, with Massa ahead (14.2%).
Winners and losers without Macri
But another very interesting picture that the survey shows is the one that compares this data on PASO voting intention by candidate, at the national level, with a previous study.
Thus,
without Macri, it is possible to evaluate who won and who lost with the landslide.
Although it is clear that the changes could also be due to other factors,
the most benefited seems to be Bullrich, who grew 9 points between one survey and the other
: it went from 11.7% to 20.7%.
As if it had captured almost all the flow that Macri measured before running to Federico González: 9.4%.
The last national survey of Federico González.
How the vote for the presidential PASO changed with Macri's shift among the main candidates.
Larreta, on the other hand, improved only 3.6 points for this analyst: from 6.5% to 10.1%.
While
the one that fell the most, strikingly, was Cristina Kirchner: in the previous survey that included the founder of the PRO, she had 21.3% and now it has dropped to 15.9%: 5.4 points less.
surprise
.
look also
Alert for Horacio Rodríguez Larreta: he commissioned a survey and the Frente de Todos and Javier Milei appear above
A new survey measured the Province for president: with or without Cristina, the Frente de Todos did poorly