Will Donald Trump go to jail?

Former President Donald Trump has been criminally charged by a New York state court, a historic first that is only the beginning of a long legal road.

New York justice opened an investigation in 2018 into a $130,000 payment made to pornographic actress Stormy Daniels, just before the 2016 presidential election, for her to conceal an alleged extramarital relationship with Donald Trump.

The sum had not been declared in the Republican candidate's campaign accounts, a possible violation of state election laws, and recorded as "

in the accounts of his company, which is headquartered in New York.

After three months of investigations and the hearing of numerous witnesses, the grand jury adopted an indictment on Thursday, the content of which has not been made public.

Donald Trump, who lives in Florida, is due to appear in court in New York on Tuesday to be formally notified of the charges against him.

Fingerprints, photo, but probably no handcuffs

This will be a first for an American president, who will have to submit to a meticulous legal procedure.

He will have to state his name, age, profession, submit to fingerprinting and be photographed (the famous "

"), as any warned.

Read alsoAgainst Donald Trump, is American justice political?

Will there be a "

", this march of the defendant surrounded by police in a public space, during which he is machine-gunned by photographers and cameras?

According to his lawyer Joe Tacopina, Trump will not be handcuffed but may have to walk through halls in the presence of media.

Democratic prosecutors “

,” said Me Tacopina on the NBC channel.

This image could have significant media repercussions.

But not necessarily to the detriment of Donald Trump: an analysis by the

has shown to what extent the former president knew how to capitalize on this indictment which weighs on him, to launch his campaign with his supporters by denouncing a "

".

The former president will then appear before a New York State judge, before whom he will plead "

", his lawyer said.

The file should be entrusted, according to the American media, to judge Juan Merchan, who supervised the trial for tax evasion of the Trump Organization last year.

This magistrate "

", wrote Donald Trump on Friday, in capital letters.

Up to 4 years in prison

His lawyer Me Tacopina indicated that he intended to introduce "

" several appeals to try to have his client's charge invalidated.

He could plead that the investigation was dependent, or a formal defect, which should slow down the procedure.

If he loses his case, the normal course of justice provides for three scenarios after a charge.

Charges can be dropped.

This relatively frequent hypothesis is quite unlikely in Donald Trump's case given its repercussions, even if some observers believe that the case is not legally very solid.

Or the accused can make a deal with prosecutors and agree to plead guilty to avoid a trial and get a lighter sentence.

This option seems impossible, because Donald Trump continues to proclaim his innocence.

The most likely case is therefore that the justice organizes a trial, but it must first respect several procedures, with various preliminary hearings.

Again, Donald Trump's lawyers will no doubt use all possible levers to delay this deadline.

Moreover, in the 1970s, the Ministry of Justice considered that a president in office should not have to answer to justice, even for facts prior to his taking office.

If Donald Trump were re-elected, the procedure should be put on hold for the four years of his mandate.

For a trial to be organized in New York, probably before a popular jury, the court must therefore manage to organize it before October 2024, or else Donald Trump loses the election again.

According to CNN, Donald Trump could face around 30 charges revolving around accounting fraud to conceal the use of the 130,000 dollars.

According to the

, New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg is seeking an indictment for "

."

The maximum penalty for this crime is four years in prison under US law.

And it could only be the first for the former president who is the subject of multiple other legal investigations.

Even in jail, Trump could still run for president

Donald Trump will probably not be prevented from running for president by justice.

In the United States, a criminally charged or convicted person can run for any office and be elected.

Since a Supreme Court ruling in 1969, US law has made it clear that even a person imprisoned in the United States can run for president - and therefore theoretically, exercise their mandate.

In contrast, in most US states, with the exception of Maine and Vermont, prisoners do not have the right to vote.

Read alsoWhat are the legal cases in which Donald Trump is implicated?

The Constitution provides only one exception to the exercise of an official function: having participated in an “

” or a “

” against the United States.

This scenario is not completely ruled out: Donald Trump, who launched himself last November in the presidential race of 2024, is the subject of a federal justice investigation for his role in the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. A parliamentary inquiry recommended indicting him for "

," but no charges have been brought against him at this stage.

The charge against Donald Trump currently concerns only one of the least worrying cases for the former president, among those for which investigations are underway.