On video: Donald Trump supporters ahead of the former president's hearing (Reuters)
Tonight (Israel time), former US President Donald Trump is expected to appear in New York and turn himself in to the police. This, against the background of the country's jury's decision to file an indictment against Trump attributed to the "hush money" affair. As part of that affair, Trump allegedly paid through His former lawyer Michael Cohen, approximately $130,000 to the porn star Stormy Daniels, after a few weeks before the presidential election in 2016, the latter claimed to have had sex with Trump a decade earlier. Cohen's payment of hush money to Daniels does not constitute a criminal offense, but
rather The transfer of Trump's funds to Cohen through a company owned by him is the one that is in the spotlight. According to reports in the international media, among the offenses expected to be attributed to Trump, there are also several sections relating to the false registration of documents, among them perhaps even a section of the offense of "forging documents with the intention of concealing or commit another offense," which is considered a "felony" offense in the level of offenses,And it stipulates a penalty of up to four years in prison.
In any case, filing an indictment is a dramatic event in the life of a public figure.
Not least, when it comes to the first president in the history of the United States against whom a criminal indictment is filed. All this, without mentioning the far-reaching consequences for the campaign of Donald Trump, who is expected to run again in the upcoming presidential elections. These events are dramatic for his image and the continuation of his path in public life , which will rise or fall on correct and accurate management of the crisis at the media level. Any decision he makes will directly affect his chances of returning for another term in the White House.
Stormy Daniels, the porn star who received hush money from the former President of the United States Donald Trump.
March 31, 2023 (Photo: Reuters)
Holding an election campaign until Election Day
The jury in New York determined for Trump which cards he would start playing with.
Whether he likes it or not, for him the election campaign begins right now, more than a year and a half before Voter's Day, which will take place on November 5, 2024. Among the main challenges he will have to face: extremely high recognition - which makes it difficult to reshape public opinion among the wavering potential voters;
managing the legal process that clouds the integrity of the candidate alongside the management of an election campaign;
And above all, the challenge of time - over a year and a half until Voter's Day, a significant period of time on the scale of campaigns, which those running in the elections usually start closer to Voter's Day.
At the same time, if he works precisely, Trump will be able to turn the last challenge into an advantage and use the time to shape public consciousness.
As far as Trump and his team are concerned, there are two critical steps they must take.
First, the main task will be to produce an agenda regularly, while leading the media discourse.
If they manage to do this, they will be able to use the media spotlight, even if it will be negative at first, as a platform to convey the messages they want to spread.
Holding a campaign for over a year and a half is not a simple task as mentioned.
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Donald Trump (Photo: Reuters)
Three periods, three message boxes
Second, in order to produce an agenda, the campaign will have to be divided into three periods along the axis of the crisis, with a message box and media intensity adjusted and changed in each period:
1. First period: the legal crisis management period
- This period will begin tomorrow with Trump's arrival in New York, where the indictment will be filed, and its sections are expected to be made public.
The ability to control this event at the media level is basically impossible.
The procedure is the one that will dictate the media volume, and the more serious the charges are, the greater the intensity of the media coverage in the US and in the world will be. At the same time, Trump will be able to take advantage of the media platform and the legal storm, to start an arm, whether by himself or If through messengers, the seeds of his narrative around the legal process. Among other things, he will be able to highlight messages of "political persecution", "biased prosecutor/judge" and blame the Democrats, who are working against the Republicans. In this way, on the one hand, he will strengthen the base, and on the other hand, he will try from now on to collect swinging support votes on the grounds of injustice. In addition, Trump is expected to be released to his home on the same day, which will help him make additional strategic moves to shape consciousness in the media arena.
2. Second period: the period of transformation and recovery of the brand
- within this phase, Trump will have to produce two main axes of action.
The first axis, will have to act to create a sense of change, alongside maintaining the image of the "persecuted" which will be divided between the Democrats and the Republicans.
The second axis will have to produce a negative campaign that will focus on Biden's unsuitability for the presidency, while emphasizing his physical and health condition with high intensity.
With the right mix, he will be able to stabilize the image ship, and convince the wavering voices that the importance of the legal process at the center of which he stands, is less than the importance of returning the USA to its greatness during his tenure. 3. Third period:
Launching a renewed campaign until Election Day
- Trump should reach this stage when he is already After the application of the event, the legal process and its management at the media level will aim to reduce the importance of the event in the eyes of the public and relaunch the campaign of hope for US citizens.
The same campaign that brought him to the presidency.
This, along with refining the messages in accordance with the data.
And the bottom line is, Trump is heading towards an image-media event that is not easy at all.
The filing of the indictment already has an effect, but the real test will be the ability of Trump and his team to grasp the event as much as possible, lead the discourse and shape the agenda at the strategic level.
Trump will have to use the platform to introduce the messages, the fencing of the legal process at the image level and the creation of the renewed gospel both for the base, and especially for the swinging voices.
The author is Michael Solomon, strategic consultant, head of crises at the Ben Horin Alexandrovich office
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