One male and two female candidates were the most voted in a
new survey
that evaluated different hypotheses for the
presidential
PASO
of the
2023 elections
.
The study, by the firms
Grupo Opinión Pública (GOP)
and
Trespuntozero
, shows
Javier Milei
with a very high number fighting alone, and
Cristina Kirchner
and
Patricia Bullrich
prevailing in their respective inmates.
The survey, which
Clarín
accessed this Wednesday, included
2,000 interviews
at the start of this month.
The results were presented with a margin of error of +/- 2.5%.
And in the main measurements, cuts were made with the opinion of middle-class
respondents
, a group that these two firms have been pondering for some time.
The study was done
online
, a modality that, some analysts and politicians warn,
favors the most radical leaders
, since the answers would come from a more informed public and immersed in the crack.
The names of Milei, Bullrich and Cristina fit into the theory
, although, it is worth saying, these are three leaders who also tend to stand out in telephone or face-to-face surveys.
Regarding the consultants, the
GOP
is directed by
Raúl Timerman
, a well-known analyst, cousin of the former foreign minister and closer to the ruling party.
Trespuntozero
, meanwhile, has as its visible face
"Shila" Vilker
, who works on both sides of the crack and also earned a place in the world of politics.
Among her clients would now be the national government and the Bullrich team, to cite two examples.
Or at least both places circulate their surveys.
Regarding the results of the report, before the voting intention data, a graph is published with a look at the national management and the red numbers for the Government are ratified.
The Alberto Fernández administration has a rejection of 74.1% in general and rises to 80.3% among middle class respondents.
Of affinities and votes
The first table with an electoral aroma asks about the
"proximity to the political spaces"
.
And there, even beaten, he leads the
Frente de Todos
of "Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner and Sergio Massa"
with
29.1%
.
It is followed
by Juntos por el Cambio
by "Mauricio Macri, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich" with
26.4%
and completes the
Avanza Libertad
podium by "Javier Milei and José Luis Espert" with
17.5%
.
Among the middle class, JxC prevails with 30.3%.
Then, in the chapter
"Presidential 2023" , the
floors and ceilings
of the main candidates
are first evaluated .
And there is a fairly linear staggering:
at the top three representatives of the PRO
(Bullrich, Larreta and Macri, in that order),
then Milei
, below four oficialistas (Cristina, Alberto, Massa and Wado de Pedro) and last the still unknown Juan Schiaretti.
Then two variants of STEP
are measured .
With Macri and Cristina, and without them
.
In the first case, the founder of the PRO has already warned that he will not be part of the game.
The vice, on the other hand, maintains the lack of definition: although she was the first to say that she would not be a candidate "for anything", she later endorsed a forced operative outcry that is still in force.
In the initial ranking, at a glance,
three results stand out
:
1) Milei is the most voted in general with 19.1%, as the only libertarian representative.
2) Bullrich prevails with 14.9% in Together for Change, which as a space leads with a total of 36.6%,
3) Cristina is clearly the leader in the Front of All: 17.9 out of 30 points are hers.
In the
second table
, now
without the former presidents
, there are also three strong news:
1) Milei remains with an interesting 19.3%.
2) Bullrich widens the advantage in its internal and becomes the most voted: it grows to 22.1%, out of a total of 36% of the space, with Larreta second but far (10.5%).
3) There is almost a triple technical tie in the FdT, without the vice: Massa 9.7%, Alberto 8%, Scioli 7.3% and Capitanich 2.7%. Space drops to 27.7%.
Finally, to explain these shifts, the survey reflects how
the
11.5 points
that
Macri
gets in the initial PASO hypothesis and the
17.9 that
Cristina
gets
in the same scenario
are distributed .
In the case of the founder of the PRO,
the most benefited is Bullrich
(he keeps almost 58% of that flow).
And in Cristina's, once again there is more dispersion:
Scioli captures 28.2%
of the total, Alberto 25.4% and Massa 18.7%.
look also
A new poll measured who wins and who loses votes with the departure of Macri: there was a big surprise
Alert for Horacio Rodríguez Larreta: he commissioned a survey and the Frente de Todos and Javier Milei appear above