We are all worried about what is coming.
The problem is not the drought
, because under normal conditions this would just be a bad drink.
Erase and new account.
The problem is that the drought, whose effects are already spreading throughout the economy and society, takes the agro-industrial sector without any rest.
Everyone already knows it, but
it never hurts to repeat it: since the withholdings were reintroduced, the field suffered from an obscene and growing levy.
Just for export rights, he transferred more than 120 billion dollars.
To this
we must add the exchange rate split
, a long-standing experiment that is getting worse these days.
The gap is 100%, which means that
for every dollar that comes in, the government keeps half
.
In the case of soybeans, with withholdings of 33%, the final account is that of a dollar of 400 pesos, the producer takes 200 and from this 33% must be subtracted.
Another 70 bucks.
Now there is talk of a “soybean dollar 3”, officially the “agricultural dollar”.
It would consist (because it is not at all confirmed) that instead of giving him 200 pesos per dollar of 400, they would give him 300. It is an
"improvement"
of 50%.
For a month, the Government "resigns" half of the job of the gap.
The objective is totally short-term.
It aims for producers to liquidate early their meager soybean holdings, which are not only in short supply but also of poor quality.
The drama would be total if it were not for the fact that we have a powerful and very modern industrial structure
, capable of processing grains that would be rejected anywhere in the world.
In fact,
exporters that do not have crushing plants withdrew from the market.
In a meeting held by industry executives with sector entities, the intention to make the quality standard more flexible was raised.
Short-termism is not summed up in the attempt to advance the "selling farmer", that is, the sale of producers.
Now
there is the threat that the exchange rate unfolding will be used to accentuate the worst effect of withholdings: the alteration of the input/output ratio.
This is the technological equation.
Let's see.
Withholdings of 33%, with a single exchange rate, implies that 50% more product is needed to acquire a unit of technology.
For example, fertilizers.
Without export duties, a kilo of soybeans would have to be delivered for a unit of phosphorus or potassium, the two elements that must be replaced to guarantee the productive flow.
With 33% withholdings, that unit of phosphorus or potassium would cost 50% more in terms of soybeans.
But now
we have to add the threat of multiple exchange rates
.
In this idea of the 3 soybean dollar, which would be around 300 pesos,
the most probable scenario is that the K government will also apply it to the importation of inputs
.
It wouldn't have much of an impact on soybeans, which use little fertilizer.
But
it would have a full impact on cereals
(corn, wheat and barley), which are very demanding on nitrogenous fertilizers.
Half are imported, and the price of those made in the country is set based on the international price, multiplied by the effective exchange rate.
The Government already began to do so, when the Customs-Afip eliminated the benefit of the deferral of VAT and Profits to importers.
This implies an additional increase in the cost of fertilizers, at a time when
they are most needed to go for a necessary great harvest
.
In addition, the Central Bank is discounting the dollars requested for the importation of these and other critical inputs.
The Government will surely not be interested
, in the "intelligence" that the next harvest will not be for them.
Less quantity and less quality.
Let the next one be fixed.
Thus, the most probable scenario is that what happened when similar conditions occurred is repeated.
Producers are going to lean massively towards planting what has lower economic and financial requirements.
Read, poor little soybean,
so reviled in the K era, that I should be eternally grateful for the enormous services rendered.
Soy is the escape route, not only because it requires little nitrogen thanks to its ability to capture it from the air.
Someday self - perceived environmentalists will understand what a wonderful job nitrogen - fixing bacteria do
.
Argentina leads the world supply of Rizobium-based inoculants that do this work in symbiosis with legumes.
But in addition to this ability, soybeans are an autogamous species (it fertilizes itself).
This enables any producer to use part of his harvest as seed.
This year it will be more complicated, due to quality problems, which will be a matter to attend to.
But be that as it may,
soybean is much cheaper than corn
, the crop with which it competes, although it is also complemented in a rotation scheme.
This year that rotation is compromised, we are facing a new soybean lurch
.
It is not to tear the clothes.
It is an inevitable escape, and with the efficient and sustainable production system, the damage is minimized.
And sooner rather than later the alternation of crops will be restored.
“Well,
what is your proposal, engineer?
” My proposal is simple:
eliminate withholdings and unify the dollar.
The field is undercapitalized and needs to be returned, now, a part of everything he put in.
It is an indispensable bridge if we want to speed up recovery.
I know: the IMF won't let us.
They were imposed on successive governments since 2002.
Nobody had the imagination to propose other solutions
, and there they remained.
And
here are the results.
Let's try something else.
look too
A thermal rise and new rains are coming in a large part of the agricultural area
Wednesday at the Mercado Agroganadero: the market was sustained
