Before the end of the year, the number of cardinal electors who
will elect a new Pope
meeting in Conclave will drop to 114 from the current 123.
Nine cardinals will be 80 years old, which excludes them from the vote.
Among them will be since November the Argentine
Leonardo Sandri,
who celebrated the Palm Sunday mass presided over by the Pope, who due to his knee ailment
cannot move around the altar.
So far Francis
has called eight consistories
to create cardinals and has shaken up internal balances by creating cardinals in the
Latin American, Asian and African
peripheries of the Church .
Francis greets at the end of the general audience on Wednesdays.
Photo: Filippo Monteforte / AFP
Currently, the cardinals appointed by Jorge Bergoglio represent 65.58% of the voters,
each time closer to an absolute majority
that expands in each Consistory.
What is a consistory
The Pope can convene a Consistory at any time, which is
the highest consultative body of the Church
and the institution in which the Supreme Pontiff
creates the new cardinals
.
It is also in the consistories where the blessed and saints
who are later proclaimed are elevated to the altars
.
It was in a Consistory that he had called to increase the number of blessed and saints that Benedict XVI, Joseph Ratzinger, announced by surprise, speaking in Latin, his historic resignation from the pontificate, on February 11, 2013. A month later Jorge Bergoglio was elected Pope.
In the Consistory the Pope can consult the cardinals on the problems of the Church, even
in secret.
Francisco during the audience on Wednesdays, in Plaza San Pedro.
Photo: Reuters
There are two possible dates this year according to the tradition of the calls.
One is the solemnity of the Holy Apostles Peter and Paul,
on June 29.
The other, the solemnity of Christ the King, on
November 26.
The Pope
announces a month before
, the Sunday on which the Angelus at noon prays before the crowd gathered in San Pedro, who have been chosen to be created cardinals in the Consistory.
Paul VI established that the number of cardinal electors is
120
, but the figure is only indicative.
The Popes appoint more
taking into account the casualties
due to reaching the age of 80 and
deaths.
Francisco, one week after hospitalization.
Photo: Reuters
In November of last year the new cardinals
were twenty.
The conservative opposition
Bergoglio's reformist line is contested with
growing disgust by conservatives
and after the death on the last day of 2022 of Joseph Ratzinger, Benedict XVI, as pope emeritus, it is likely that the Synod of Synods, which are world assemblies of bishops convened by the Pope,
exhibit a clear confrontation
between the reformist lines and the traditionalists.
Some analysts agree that the next one will be one of the most difficult conclaves of the last century and a half in the history of the papacy.
Among the progressives or reformists
there are two lines
: one from Francis, the other from the German Church which is pushing towards
bolder reforms
such as the priesthood of women, the end of celibacy and a new approach to sexual issues, in particular the blessing of gay couples.
On the other side, the traditionalist or orthodox conservatives
opposed to profound changes,
whose main bastion is the North American Church, led by the Archbishop of New York, Cardinal
Timothy Dolan.
Bergoglio gets up from his wheelchair, this Wednesday.
Photo: Reuters
In the Roman Curia, the central governing body, there are two "ministers" awaiting the purple, Archbishop Claudio Gurerotti, of the Department of Eastern Churches, and Archbishop Robert Pvost, Prefect of the Department of Bishops.
The papables
On the reformist front, the current favorite for the Pope is the Archbishop of Bologna,
Matteo Zuppi
, a 67-year-old Roman president of the Italian Episcopal Conference.
Gone is the previous Bergoglian favorite, the prefect of the Department of Evangelization,
the Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
, 65, former Archbishop of Manila.
In Europe, investigations into sexual abuse have caused devastation in national churches.
So much so that unless the Pope chooses a Frenchman at the next Consistory,
a Conclave could be reached without a cardinal from France,
who has the title of
Favorite Daughter of the Church.
In addition, European Catholicism faces a popularity crisis.
It is in the East of the continent that it houses a papable such as
Cardinal Peter Erdö
, Primate of Hungary.
The Pope plans to visit the country, and the figure of Erdö concentrates many expectations.
Among the conservatives, the most visible leaders are the New Yorker Timothy Dolan,
the Dutchman Willem Jacobus Eijk,
Archbishop of Utrecht and the Guinean Roberto Sarah.
Cardinal Dolan intervened beyond the formalities by sending a gift of a book on
“The Next Pope”,
contrary to Bergoglio, to all the cardinals.
The Pope that is known did not protest the gesture that he must not have liked.
Bergoglio is assisted during the hearing on Wednesdays.
On Saturday he was released from the hospital with a respiratory infection.
Photo: Reuters
If, as expected, the confrontation is going to heat up in the coming months, the conservative strategy could focus not on promoting their own figures but on seeking that the next Pope is the result of a compromise to avoid a long and
dramatic
Conclave
. .
They say that among all, there is no one like the moderate esteemed by all and with a great experience, in the summits of the church:
the Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 68 years old.
Cardinal Parolin is a polished diplomat, in tune with the pope who appointed him, but he is not a "closely observant Bergoglian."
The conservative newspaper "Libero" forecasts that "with an agreement on its name, the 'white smoke' (the column of smoke that announces the
habemus papam
) could even arrive
in record time
".
Despite the problems, the Argentine Pope's state of health is good and if he avoids overwork
he could extend his papacy until 2024
, giving him a better chance to defend his line of reforms.
With a new consistory, Francisco could further increase the number of cardinal electors favorable to the progressive cause.
Bergoglio affirms that
he does not want to resign
although he frequently speaks about the subject.
Among the various interventions that are read on social networks and in the press, a new Jesuit or Latin American Pope is ruled out.
The conservatives will not achieve a majority to impose the future pontiff with a candidate of their own.
If the cardinals of the reformist line continue to expand their numerical majority, they only have the ability to
negotiate a compromise.
Vatican correspondent
ap
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