The shift to the right in Europe continues.
After Italy and Sweden, which have been governed by conservative, populist and nationalist parties since last year, Finland also moved a little to the right in Sunday's parliamentary elections.
This also has consequences at EU level.
This analysis is available
to IPPEN.MEDIA as part of a cooperation with the Europe.Table Professional Briefing -
Europe.Table
first published it
on April 4th, 2023.
In the parliamentary elections in Finland on Sunday, the previously ruling Social Democrats of Prime Minister Sanna Marin made gains — they increased by 2.2 percentage points to 19.9 percent.
However, they still fell to third place behind the conservative National Coalition Party of ex-Finance Minister Petteri Orpo (20.8 percent) and the right-wing populist party The Finns (20.1 percent).
A coalition involving right-wing populists is now emerging, said Rikhard Husu, EU correspondent for Finnish radio, at an event hosted by the Hesse state representation in Brussels.
There are no political reservations in Finland, the (true) Finns were already involved in the government in 2015.
A change of course is now to be expected, at least in financial policy.
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Fiscal policy, along with migration, had already dominated the election campaign in Finland.
The Social Democrats have been accused of taking on too much debt and endangering the country's financial stability.
Against this background, he expects a return to austerity policies, said Husu.
In addition, Helsinki is likely to oppose an EU sovereignty fund, as France is demanding.
What's next for Sanna Marin?
It is unclear what consequences the election result will have for Marin, who is known and popular far beyond Finland.
In Brussels, she is being traded as a possible top candidate for the Social Democrats in the European elections in spring 2024.
Opinions differ on whether or not she needs a ministerial post in the new Finnish government.
Possible competitors for Marin include Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans, who is said to have more ambitions in his native Netherlands, and Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, should he lose the parliamentary elections at the end of the year.
The Social Democrats are concerned about the Finnish election result.
The outcome of the election was "no reason to celebrate," said Katarina Barley from the German Social Democrats to Table.Media.
In Finland, the strongest party always heads the government, this time the National Coalition Party.
The latter is considering cooperation with the EU-hostile party The Finns.
"This continues a pattern that seems to be becoming a habit among European conservatives," Barley said.
To increase power in the European Council, EPP member parties have collaborated with Europe's enemies - most recently in Italy and Sweden.
"The conservatives therefore bear a special responsibility: whoever gets involved with Europe's enemies buries the European project."
Only five social democrats left at the EU summit
First of all, the European social democrats should be worried, says Nicolai von Ondarza from the Science and Politics Foundation.
The defeat in Finland also marks the end of the "brief revival" of the social democratic party family in the European Council: After the defeat in Sweden and Finland, only five social democrats are still represented at the EU summit.
In addition to Germany, Spain, Portugal, Malta and Denmark are also governed by social democrats.
However, the EPP no longer has the majority, which has long been taken for granted.
According to von Ondarza, however, this could change with the elections in Spain in December: if the Conservatives win, as expected, the EPP would regain the upper hand a few months before the European elections.
By Eric Bonse
Rubric list image: © Sergei Grits