The EU lands in China to convince Xi to talk with Zelensky about the war

A strong hand, but an outstretched hand.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, continue this week with the carousel of visits to China with which the EU explores its relationship with Beijing at a key geopolitical moment.

Trade ties have a nuclear role in the meetings that the Europeans will hold in China, but the dotted line that unites all the visits is Russia's war in Ukraine and the role that Beijing can play in a possible way out of the conflict.

European leaders want China not to cross the red line of providing military support to Moscow, but also that the all-powerful leader Xi Jinping — who has recently visited Russian President Vladimir Putin, his "dear friend" — talks with the president. Ukrainian, Volodimir Zelensky.

Xi, who has refused to condemn the Russian invasion, has not spoken to Zelensky since before Putin launched the full-scale war in Ukraine on February 24 last year.

The invasion has opened the EU's eyes to the risks and vulnerabilities provided by its dependencies on complicated suppliers, and has pushed it to wean itself off cheap Russian gas.

With these wickerwork, the Union, well aware that it depends on China as practically the only supplier of a good number of essential goods and raw materials, also wants to transfer another idea to Beijing: that it would not tremble and move away from China in the In the event that he consecrates his support for the Russian invasion in that new multipolar order to which Xi and Putin aspire, diplomatic sources say.

This departure would be undesirable and would be a major challenge,

The situation in Ukraine and Beijing's stance towards the war is the packaging for this week's high-level visit by European leaders.

As it was during the trip of the Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, last week, and it will be in a few days, when the high representative for Foreign Policy of the EU, Josep Borrell, flies to Beijing.

Although China has its own proposal to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine – which the Chinese authorities do not call a war, but a “crisis” – it is rather tilted towards Moscow, according to Brussels.

The idea is that China can play an important role in the 10-point peace plan that President Zelensky presented to the G-20 leaders in November, a document that calls for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine internationally. recognized, sources from the Élysée and community sources agree.

In fact, Von der Leyen spoke with the Ukrainian leader on Tuesday to prepare for his visit to Beijing.

As a background to the visit are the commercial relations between the EU and China, which exchanged more than 795,000 million euros in goods and services in 2021, according to Union data.

Beijing is the second largest trade and investment partner in the EU, which exports vehicles, machinery and pharmaceuticals to the Asian giant and its tens of thousands of consumers.

Macron, the main protagonist of a state visit of several days to which the head of the Community Executive has joined in part, will travel with a very representative delegation of businessmen and hopes to close some commercial agreements, according to sources from the Elysee.

On his last visit, in 2019, the French president returned home with contracts worth some 30 billion euros for Airbus, an amount that could now be expanded.

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the French President, Emmanuel Macron, at the Elysée Palace this Monday. LUDOVIC MARIN (AFP)

The French president wants to underline together with Von der Leyen - both will hold a trilateral meeting with Xi - European unity.

In this way, Macron can also avoid the criticism that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz experienced at the end of last year in everything surrounding his trip to China, which he also attended with a large business delegation, says Janka Oertel, director of the Asia Program of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Divergences between partners

Ties with China – now freshly hatched from its coronavirus pandemic isolation and with a great appetite for advancing into the European market – are a hotly contested issue among the Twenty-seven.

There is no common position.

While countries like France and Germany opt for a rather pragmatic stance and to advance, albeit carefully, in trade agreements;

Others, such as the Baltics or Sweden, warn that another dependency like the one the EU had on Moscow could be very expensive.

These partners are not too happy with the European plethora that is going to make a pilgrimage to China: the German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, is also considering a visit in the near future.

Brussels is putting regulations in place to reduce its dependence on China with laws to limit its presence as the sole supplier of essential raw materials.

Now he is advancing on a plan to control investments in strategic sectors abroad and to guarantee the independence and security of the EU.

But the capitals that are part of that more pragmatic current believe that there is still room to explore new links with Beijing.

The double visit of the French leader with Von der Leyen, who has adopted a tougher line and is advancing in his position of trade protectionism, gives some air some air and reassures others.

Especially after last week's speech in two notable think tanks in Brussels —one of them sanctioned by Beijing— in which the German marked her position for the visit with a broadside against the policy of assertiveness, control, defense and security from Peking.

At the same time, the head of the European Executive also stressed that this is not the time to dissociate from China (as Washington claims), but to establish a clear relationship with fewer risks.

For Beijing, the visit by European leaders is already an achievement at a time when it is courting the Union against US influence.

Von der Leyen's speech, perceived as harsh in Brussels and in which he accused Beijing of wanting to change the world order to impose its dominance, has barely made the Chinese Communist Party blink, which is left with the most neutral and constructive messages.

Beijing tends to prefer bilateral relations, dealing with each country in its own separate agreements, but values ​​the presence of the head of the European Commission as a success, perceived as closer to the positions of the United States.

Meanwhile, some are talking about reviving or at least rethinking the investment agreement with the EU, frozen by the European Parliament in 2021 and which the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, had threatened to resume.

This is a complex matter.

The China that signed the agreement is no longer the same.

And neither is the EU.

"China is not only a cooperative partner and a competitor, but also a systemic rival against which we have to defend our interests and values, including in trade and investment policy," says Green MEP Reinhard Bütikofer, member of Parliament's delegation. Council for relations with China and one of the European parliamentarians sanctioned by Beijing.

Bütikofer is not the only one who thinks that this rivalry is becoming more dominant, and that trade defense instruments will begin to play an increasingly important role in these links.

Already in October, the Twenty-seven decided that it was time to recalibrate their relationship with China and seek new alternative trading partners in Latin America and Africa to limit dependence on Beijing.

But the terms of the definition of relations with China remain the same: first, a "strategic partner";

then, competitor and, lastly, systemic rival.

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