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Buenos Aires election: the survey commissioned by Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Mauricio Macri may not like him very much

2023-04-06T14:45:16.163Z


It is a study by Solmoirago, one of the firms that measures for the City. PASO data for Head of Government.


If the announcement of

Mauricio Macri

's displacement from the electoral race meant for many an agreement with

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta

-they had met 48 hours before that convulsed Sunday-, the stream of news and photos that appeared later suggest caution at least.

Now a new poll

has been added

, commissioned by the team of the head of government before the landslide but released this week, whose results could make the former president politically indigestible.

Because?

Because Jorge Macri, cousin of the founder of PRO and his bet for the local election, appears below the radical Martín Lousteau and with Fernán Quirós hot on his heels from third place.

These are two allies of Larreta.

In the case of Lousteau, Macri reproaches the head of government for having opened the doors of the City too much for him to fight for the succession.

As for Quirós, the former president wants him to be thrown off the track.

Mauricio Macri appeared with his cousin Jorge in the summer, in a signal for the candidacy in the City.

What was Larreta's response?

He publicly conceded that there should be only one PRO candidate and promised that he will support him;

but for now 

he has not dropped the Minister of Health or the Minister of Education, Soledad Acuña

, internal rivals of Jorge Macri, from the grid, and in parallel 

he continued to show himself with Lousteau

, the external threat within Together for Change.


It is in this context of maximum tension that the study by Solmoirago

is known

, a consultancy linked to radicalism for years, but which is also part of the combo of pollsters that measure for the City.

It is a

Buenos Aires survey of 400 face-to-face interviews.

This last piece of information is key: in Larreta's environment they argue - and the head of government himself repeats it - that many of the surveys that are disseminated and published by the media are

online or by telephone

and that these methodologies 

favor the toughest leaders like Patricia Bullrich, Javier Milei and Cristina Kirchner

, because they would be answered by informed citizens immersed in the crack.

On the other hand, the face-to-face meetings would reach a moderate public, far from the political debate and more similar to the profile of the mayor of Buenos Aires.

Statistical discussion.

The only truth will be the reality of the polls, but in the meantime, in Larretismo

they asked the pollsters they hire to deepen the face-to-face studies

(much more expensive, by the way).

And so this one from Solmoirago

was made

in the City.

The survey not only reached Larreta's offices.

It also circulates through the Ministry of Health, where they assure that

Quirós is still in the race

, despite the fact that he is one of the least active candidates in the campaign.

Telephone for the Macri.


The numbers for the STEP


Solmoirago

measures the PASO scenario with

five candidates from Together for Change

(the four mentioned, plus Roberto García Moritán, "Pampita's husband"),

three from the Frente de Todos

(Leandro Santoro, Matías Lammens and Mariano Recalde), plus the

libertarian

Ramiro Marra and the

leftist reference

Gabriel Solano.

In that Buenos Aires Top Ten, the highest number is held by Lousteau, with 19.4%.

They are followed by Jorge Macri with 17.1% and Quirós with 15.8%.

It is almost a triple tie, taking into account the margin of error of the survey (+/- 4.9%).

Fourth within JxC,

García Moritán is left with 2.1%

(he will hardly run since Ricardo López Murphy was launched for that space, Republicanos Unidos) and closes with

0.9% Acuña

.

The total space is very high, above 55 points, which means that

whoever wins that STEP will surely be the next head of government

.

Hence the tension with which this preview takes place.

In the Front of All, representative

Santoro (15.3%)

clearly beat minister

Lammens (3.8%)

and senator

Recalde (1.8%)

.

In the sum, the ruling party barely exceeds 20 points.

They complete

Marra

(Javier Milei's ally) with

9.9%

and

Solano

(of the Partido Obrero) with

3.1%

.

Plus 10.8% undecided.

Electoral floors and ceilings


The other Buenos Aires electoral parameter is the one that measures

electoral floors and ceilings

.

How many people would surely vote for this or that candidate, how many would probably and how many would not under any circumstances.

In this table, the highest floor is held by Lousteau (18.4% sure vote) and the highest ceiling, Quirós (52.3% between sure vote and probable vote, 2.7 points above the radical).

But once again there is a lot of parity: Jorge Macri is left with a 16.4% floor and a 49.1% ceiling. 

The rest closes far away.

look also

A new survey measured for the presidential PASO: very good news for a candidate and two female candidates

A new poll measured who wins and who loses votes with the departure of Macri: there was a big surprise

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2023-04-06

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