The formulas are technical and sometimes complex to decipher.
But in the opinion of the High Council of Public Finance on the military programming law (LPM) presented Tuesday in the Council of Ministers, the questions appear.
The president of the Court of Auditors Pierre Moscovici relayed them on Wednesday during a joint hearing before the finance and defense committees of the National Assembly, a first of its kind.
With precautions of language, he noted the “
uncertainties
” contained in the LPM and the “
constraints
” which it imposes on the other expenses of the State.
If these are not reservations about sincerity, the warnings are clear.
The 2024 2030 military programming law, which the government would like to see adopted by Parliament before July 14, is the result of a complex financial architecture.
It provides for 400 billion euros in appropriations spread over seven years to which must be added 13.3 billion in extra-budgetary revenue.
For the High Council of Public Finances, the trajectory of LPM credits is "
compatible
" with that of public finances, as it appeared in the bill of September 2022, for the years 2024 and 2025. To control its expenditure over time, and in particular to meet its deficit reduction target, the State is committed to the development of its overall budget.
"Uncertainty"
For the years 2026 and 2027, the Court "
could not directly ensure
" the compatibility with the public accounts.
It grants good faith to the government even if the most substantial budget increases, of 4.3 billion euros per year, are planned from 2028, after the next presidential election.
Suspicions relate elsewhere: to the additional 13.3 billion euros listed in the LPM.
Their financing would be ensured by extrabudgetary resources, such as real estate transfers, interministerial solidarity and the mobilization of the “
frictional margins
” which result from the execution of the budgets.
For the High Council, it is "
unrealistic
" that these 13 billion result from real estate sales: the total amount collected by these sales in 2022 amounts to only 101 million euros... "
The Government has not provided elements to verify whether the 13.3 billion euros of additional expenditure provided for in the PLPM were indeed taken into account in the expenditure trajectory
of the public finance programming bill, notes the magistrates of the Court of Auditors, wondering about the impact of this "
uncertainty
".
Read alsoBudget of the armies: tense and expected arbitrations
These recipes “
are not uncertain
”, retorted the Minister of the Armies Sébastien Lecornu during another hearing in the Assembly, refuting an estimate “
with a wet finger
”.
He promised to provide details.
For the armies, potential future adjustments would not be without consequences.
"
There is nothing too much
" in the LPM, agreed the minister.
Reduced financial margins
If the LPM is ambitious to respond to security challenges, it will weigh heavily on the accounts of France, which is more indebted than its neighbors.
The efforts announced for defence, but also internal security or research, which have been the subject of programming laws, presuppose "
a reduction in the volume of other State expenditure
" to meet its financial commitments, noted Pierre Moscovici.
The High Council has evaluated this drop at 1.4% on the other fields of public action.
This politically explosive equation is complicated by inflation.
The President of the Court of Auditors recalled that from his point of view the hypothesis adopted by the government was "
rather weak
".
If the scenario is worse than expected, the financial margins will be further reduced.
The need for rearmament, which few political leaders contest, risks forcing choices of political priority.
“
Military efforts should not compete with other efforts, for example in health, education or environmental preservation
,” warned the chairman of the finance committee Eric Coquerel (LFI).
“
I point out the problem
,” he said without launching any controversy.
For the moment.
