By Allan Smith -
NBC News
When the Republican primaries for the presidential nomination begin in the first states in 2024, the largest city in the country may be the scene of a spectacle that affects the outcome: the trial of Donald Trump.
Judge Juan Merchan, acting New York Supreme Court Justice, set the next hearing in the case on payments to silence Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal, two women with whom he allegedly had affairs, with money that it would have come from his 2016 presidential campaign funds.
Trump speaks to supporters at Mar-a-Lago after being indicted on April 4. Alex Wong / Getty Images
Trump pleaded not guilty Tuesday to all 34 counts of falsifying business records with which he is charged.
Prosecutors pushed for the trial to start in January, with the defense calling for it to be "later, in the spring" of 2024.
If the prosecution achieves its goal, the country will see Trump fight to prove his innocence in New York courts while campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, which will hold Republican primaries on February 5 and 13.
A trial could limit the number of electoral acts that the former president would attend in the weeks leading up to the elections, but on the other hand it could provide him with an unprecedented speaker and media attention capable of outshining his rivals.
[What the historic criminal indictment against Trump means for his intentions to retake the White House: five keys to the case]
"It's guaranteed that the primaries will be dominated by Trump as far as the media is concerned," a pro-Trump strategist said anonymously.
"It's probably the best scenario for him, time-wise," he added, "it was already extremely difficult to effectively attack Trump from the right, now I think it's become basically impossible."
A Democratic strategist, who also requested anonymity, said the news that the Manhattan case will drag on at least until next winter is bad news not for Trump but for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis - who appears as his top rival for the Republican nomination, although he has not yet announced whether he will run-and the other conservative candidates.
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"DeSantis' worst nightmare is the fact that he's going to have to spend the next nine months answering questions about how he feels about Trump's impeachment," this source said, stressing that Republicans "haven't shown a single hint that they're willing to drive a wedge with him."
"We all know that the overwhelming base of the Republican Party right now is MAGA [Trump's slogan] voters, and you can't ignore them," he said.
An official with the DeSantis Never Back Down PAC team made no direct mention that the trial might coincide with the former, but noted: "If DeSantis chose to heed the growing calls from the grassroots Never Back Down movement to run for president, he is showing strength in early ballot states and would win."
[Trump claims the charges against him seek to “interfere” in the 2024 election]
Still, the fact that Trump's legal team is pushing for the trial to begin in the spring could suggest that he wants to compete in early states before he stands trial.
The judge considered the request for a spring trial "reasonable," according to a transcript of Tuesday's hearing, but added: "The message I would like to convey is that we would like to move as quickly as possible without undue delay."
Manhattan is not the only jurisdiction in which Trump may have to fight legally when the primaries begin.
Legal experts have secured the alleged attempts by the former president to annul the result of the Georgia elections in 2020, the alleged mishandling of classified documents found at his Florida residence, Mar-a-Lago, or the role he could have played in the assault to Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021 are much more serious than the charges he faces in the Stormy Daniels case.
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If Trump finds it difficult to campaign as the first state races approach, the Democratic analyst said, he could still call to stand out in cities like Des Moines and Davenport, Iowa. "Trump can talk to reporters on the phone and get the networks to local Iowa television stations will listen to you and continue to reach Iowa voters even when you're not there," he said.
It would not be the first time that a Trump trial coincided with the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire.
In February 2020, the first impeachment trial to impeach Trump affected the campaign of a group of Democratic senators who were running for president as the vote neared.
The trial began in mid-January, and Trump was acquitted on February 5, 2020, two days after the Iowa caucuses.
[Trump goes from a serious and measured attitude in court to rebutting and attacking his detractors]
But those senators were not the ones on trial;
the high-profile nature of the process gave them a great media opportunity to show themselves at the trial.
Still, none of his campaigns were successful as Democrat Joe Biden won the party's and then the presidential nominations.
The prevailing view is that Trump, while in legal jeopardy, could fare better than his opponents, at least in the primaries.
"I think this makes it even more likely that Trump will win [the] primary," former Republican North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory said.
"He paralyzes other candidates," he said.