If
Javier Milei
was for a long time the main bet of the Frente de Todos to get votes from Together for Change and guarantee that an official candidate reaches the ballot, the shot may be backfiring.
A
new survey
that
Clarín
accessed this Friday confirms another piece of information that is beginning to spread by word of mouth among different analysts: the growth of the libertarian economist, rather than undermining support for the main opposition coalition, would put the presence of a representative at risk of the Government in the grand finale.
With a symptomatic addition of the current weakness of the FdT: the measurement confronts Milei, alone, against five candidates for the ruling party. And the contest ends in a draw. Red alert for Cristina and company.
The poll that brings these news is from
Opinaia
, a firm specializing in online measurements, which has the City Government among its clients.
Between March 14 and 23, it surveyed
2,000 cases
, with a +/- 2.2% margin of error.
At the start of the report, they present a
summary of results
:
- "After the various episodes of violence that occurred in Rosario,
concern about insecurity increased sharply
, remaining in second place in the ranking. For its part, inflation continues to lead concerns: almost 70% consider that the increase in prices It's the country's main problem."
- "The
evaluation of the national government
reaches its
most critical level in the historical series
: 70% of those consulted negatively evaluate the management, reaping very meager percentages not only among opposition voters but also among voters of the Frente de All".
- "Again,
Javier Milei is the
best positioned
leader
, in terms of
knowledge and popularity
. María Eugenia Vidal and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich, within Cambiemos, are the figures with the best image. Within the ruling party, Sergio Massa is the better positioned, although it accumulates three consecutive months of decline in its valuation".
Floor and ceiling of spaces
An interesting electoral measurement that Opinaia
has been doing
is evaluating
the electoral floor and ceiling of the three main forces
: the two from the crack plus the libertarians.
And the latter are the ones that end up with the best balance.
An alarm that should also sound in Together for Change.
In the poll numbers,
Libertarians
have an
electoral floor of 20%
("sure vote") and a
ceiling of 56%
(a 36% "likely vote" is added), with one
rejection
("I would never vote for him" )
of 43%
.
Next is
Juntos por el Cambio
(
18% floor
,
52% ceiling
-with 34% "probable vote"- and
49% rejection
).
And the
Frente de Todos
closes , with
14% "sure vote"
, 21% "probable vote" (
35% ceiling
) and
65% rejection
/ "I would never vote for him."
The numbers for the STEP
The most interesting picture is when the STEP scenario
is evaluated
.
Of the
five weighted forces
(the three mentioned, plus non-K Peronism and the Left Front),
Milei is the only one who goes alone
as an offer for his space.
But
that is enough for him to finish second, tied against five of the official members together
.
In previous measurements, the libertarians had also managed to tie against the Frente de Todos, but in addition to Milei, José Luis Espert was measured.
Not now.
Put in numbers, the 20 points that the libertarian representative gets are matched against the 20 that are shared between Axel Kicillof (6%), Sergio Massa (6%), Alberto Fernández (4%), Daniel Scioli (3%) and Wado of Peter (1%).
Both spaces are below the sum of
29 points from Together for Change :
Patricia Bullrich
leads there (12%)
, followed by a
striking parity
between
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
and
María Eugenia Vidal
(
6% each
), plus
2%
from
Gerardo Morales
,
2%
from
Elisa Carrió
and
1%
from
Miguel Angel Pichetto
.
Away are
4 points
from
PJ no K
(3% from Juan Schiaretti and 1% from Juan Manuel Urtubey) and
3 points
from the
Left Front
(2% from Nicolás del Caño and 1% from Myriam Bregman).
Plus
5%
"
blank/null"
and
19%
" undecided
"
.
look also
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