The international arrest warrant could have major consequences for Vladimir Putin.
This is the conclusion of an expert from the University of Oxford.
Moscow/Oxford - The international arrest warrant for Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin caused a great deal of media coverage.
But what are the real consequences for Putin?
Is it just a symbolic act?
An Eastern Europe expert from the British elite university of Oxford believes that harsh consequences for the Russian president are quite possible.
Putin under pressure because of international arrest warrant?
The current facts: On March 17, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an international arrest warrant for Putin.
The accusation: Illegal deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia during the Ukraine war.
As a result, the 123 member states of the International Criminal Court are now legally obliged to arrest Putin as soon as he sets foot on their soil.
In addition to the EU and most African countries, all South American countries (apart from Cuba and Nicaragua) are also affected.
Even protégé Armenia could face trouble in the future.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at Moscow's Kremlin.
© ITAR-TASS/IMAGO/Sergei Karpukhin
Russia, on the other hand - just like China - does not recognize the arrest warrant and the ICC.
Accordingly, one does not extradite one's own nationals.
But Putin could be arrested and put on trial if he were to lose power in Russia or if Russia's elite arrested him in an attempt to deprive him of his power.
This is the assessment of Vlad Mychnenko, an expert on the post-communist transformation of the former Soviet Union at Oxford University.
Arrest warrant leaves Putin "extremely vulnerable," says expert
However, he warned
the US
Newsweek that Putin might not make it to The Hague in this case either.
According to this, the Russian siloviki, the powerful Russian security elite who help determine the country's fortunes, could eliminate him before a possible trial.
"Given Putin's extensive connections across Europe and what he could possibly tell the judges about corruption and shady dealings between Moscow and major Western capitals, there will be plenty of reasons to silence him before The Hague."
The international arrest warrant made Vladimir Putin "extremely vulnerable," says Mychnenko.
If Putin were to risk visiting ICC member states and getting “in trouble” there, it could be because the siloviki arrested him to “get rid of him”.
For example, relations with the West could be improved again.
In that case, a surrogate president could be conjured up who could even pretend, ostensibly, to avenge the loss of Putin.
Vladimir Putin: The political career of the Russian head of state in pictures
Vladimir Putin: The political career of the Russian head of state in pictures
In support of this thesis, he also cites the current statements made by former President Dmitry Medvedev, who is loyal to Putin and which Mykhnenko calls “quite extraordinary”.
Medvedev rumbled that any attempt to arrest Putin would be tantamount to a declaration of war on Russia.
Does Russia's elite want to "get rid of" Putin?
According to the Oxford expert, Medvedev could not only have tried to protect Putin, but also presented himself as a possible strong and ultra-patriotic successor.
"He's stepped in to claim to be 'holier than the Pope,' more Z-warmonger than Putin himself, as if to imply — whatever happens to Putin — I could be number one again, you can trust me, the ultra-patriot, I'll show them."
According to the expert, Medvedev is continuing his - so far unsuccessful - tactic of ensnaring the siloviki.
However, it could become an option in the event that Putin is deposed.
The journalist Marina Ovsyannikova, who became known for her criticism of the Kremlin on live Russian TV, said in a recent interview that she hopes that the elite in Russia can see the arrest warrant against Putin as the "first signal" to take action against him.
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List of rubrics: © ITAR-TASS/IMAGO/Sergei Karpukhin
