It tells one of the political stories of the
night of fury of the PASO 2021
in the Frente de Todos bunker, when the results were not yet known and several leaders recommended Cristina Kirchner to come to Buenos Aires to celebrate a victory that was not would exist,
Sebastián Galmarini
, brother-in-law of Sergio Massa and an official at Banco Provincia, appeared in the area
with bad news.
According to his data,
a defeat was coming
.
What was it based on?
In the measurements of a consultancy,
Analytical Intelligence (AI)
, which does continuous update monitoring.
That time he was not wrong.
And now?
Clarín
accessed the firm's latest study, which accumulated during the week of March 27 to April 2,
9,944 interviews to mobile and landline phones
.
With these data, he presented a report with +/- 1.65% margin of error.
And there stand out at least
two powerful definitions
:
1) When asked about space, a triple tie appears between the Together for Change, the Frente de Todos and the libertarians, with a high level of undecided.
2) When the internal one in the main opposition alliance is measured, it is seen how the support that Mauricio Macri had before leaving is transferred massively to Patricia Bullrich and this would make her prevail today in her dispute with Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
In
the head of government's team they have been opposing a theory
to this type of conclusion: they argue that online or telephone surveys like this one favor Bullrich, because they are usually answered by the public most immersed in the crack.
It will be seen.
As for the AI study, in addition to obviously reaching Massa, it also circulates in Government House, since it is one of the pollsters that measures for La Rosada.
And its director,
Marcelo Escolar
, is one of the most respected analysts there.
key numbers
To begin with, the report highlights in its
electoral block
:
- "In the
intention to vote for
political space, the
undecided remain at 30%
. With the
growth of the Liberals
there is a
technical tie between them, Together for Change and the Frente de Todos around 20%
."
The latest national Analytical Intelligence survey.
He measured for the 2023 elections.
- "Regarding the
internal ones
, the intention to vote in the
Frente de Todos
begins to have some changes:
CFK has 55% support with a decreasing trend
and Alberto Fernández is close to 20%. CFK contributes 15 points to the kirchnerism".
The latest national Analytical Intelligence survey.
He measured inmates for the PASO in the ruling party.
The latest national Analytical Intelligence survey.
He measured inmates for the PASO in the ruling party.
- "In the
Juntos por el Cambio inmate, Patricia Bullrich capitalizes on the resignation of Mauricio Macri, rising to almost 60%
. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta remains at 28%. The sum of the two radical candidates rises to 15%."
The exact numbers of the measurement by space are: Together for Change 22.7%, Frente de Todos 20.5%, Libertarios 20.3% and Izquierda 5.8%, with 30.7% undecided.
The latest national Analytical Intelligence survey.
He measured inmates for the PASO in the ruling party.
The latest national Analytical Intelligence survey.
He measured interns for the PASO in Together for Change.
The intern of the
Frente de Todos
, evaluates her
without and with Cristina
.
In the
first case
, the generic
"some Kirchnerist candidate" leads with 38.3%
, followed by Alberto Fernández with 24.5%, Sergio Massa with 19.4% and "some Peronist candidate" with 17.8%.
In the
second
,
Cristina comfortably scores with 54.9%
.
And in
Together for Change
,
Bullrich
appears comfortable at the top with
58.4%
, against
28%
for
Larreta
,
9.1%
for
Gerardo Morales
and
4.5%
for
Facundo Manes
.
But the most striking thing, when looking at the series, is
how the former minister took off with the departure of Macri
.
look also
Alert in the Government for a new survey: Javier Milei ties against five pro-government candidates in PASO
Buenos Aires election: the survey commissioned by Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Mauricio Macri may not like him very much