Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
's decision
to move forward with the "concurrent" elections in the City, that is, to vote on the same day but in separate ballot boxes for president and head of government, unleashed a very harsh controversy within the PRO, with the opposition lashing out .
And the reaction of the actors affected by the change, beyond their public arguments, is
linear with the benefit or harm
that the new system can bring them.
The news, anticipated in Clarín this Sunday by
Santiago Fioriti
, inaugurates a variant (another) in a hackneyed voting mechanism in the district in recent years.
-
In 1996
, the first election of the Autonomous City, they voted
separately
, with
a paper ballot
, but
without a runoff
.
-
Between 2000 and 2011
(four elections), there was a continuity: the elections for Buenos Aires head of government were kept
separate from the national one
, with
a classic paper ballot, but with a second round
if the winner did not reach 50% in the first.
-
In 2015
, they continued to be
separated
, but
for the first time the
single electronic ballot
was used
: the system consisted of a machine with a screen, where one decided their vote, that vote was printed and then it went to a ballot box.
-
In 2019
, due to pressure from Mauricio Macri and Marcos Peña, to improve the presidential chances of Together for Change, the autonomy of the City was mocked for the first time and the election to head of Government was along with the national one, with
the
criticized
lists sheet
.
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta actually ended up benefiting: he won in the first round.
-
In 2023
, as the announcement is expected this week, a
new formula
will debut :
separate elections but on the same day
.
On the one hand, there would be a
classic ballot for the national election
and on the other,
a single ballot
(paper, a priori) for the
local bid
.
The obvious question is
who wins and who loses from change
.
And beyond the fact that the answer that is valid will only be with the electoral results (in the City and the Nation), a priori you can take a look.
Who wins
Martín Lousteau
: without a doubt, he is the great beneficiary of the change, because
he did not have a box-office radical candidate for president to "hang"
if the elections went together.
One variant was that he also shared the list with the presidential candidates of the PRO, like his ally Larreta and Patricia Bullrich, but it would have been difficult for him to live with the former Minister of Security, for example.
Frente de Todos candidates
: for government candidates it can also be an advantage, for two reasons.
On the one hand because, like Lousteau,
they don't have box office candidates for president in the district either
.
The City is one of the most refractory territories to Kirchnerism.
But in addition, since Javier Milei is not in the dispute, the candidate for head of government of that space will lose traction and the rest can benefit (including the front members).
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta?
In his case, the value of the play will be evaluated more than ever with the results posted.
On the one hand, the Buenos Aires head of government imposes a decision in the district that he has commanded for 8 years and it is still a
demonstration of internal force
.
In the 2021 legislative elections, contrary to what Macri proposed, he imposed María E. Vidal in the City and Diego Santilli in Córdoba and ended up winning in both elections.
What will happen now if Lousteau ends up winning?
Larreta publicly assures that he works so that the City continues in the hands of the PRO.
Privately, there are those who doubt his real goal
. From him.
The head of government has an important alliance with Lousteau and a sector of radicalism led by its president, Gerardo Morales.
What is clear is that Macri will not forgive Larreta for losing the cradle district of the party.
There are also doubts about how the porteños will take the idea that they complicate the way to vote (in different ballot boxes, on the same day), just when there is a general
rejection of politics and internal ones that are far from the real problems of the people
.
It seems the case.
who lose
Jorge Macri
: the cousin of the former president, candidate for head of government, moved to the district in 2021 within the framework of an agreement with Larreta to get out of the legislature in the Province and assumed that he would have the path paved to succeed him.
It didn't happen.
Not only because of this decision to separate the elections on the same day and take away the "drag" plus, but because
Larreta kept his link with Lousteau firm and even encouraged PRO applicants
to compete with him.
The legislator Emmanuel Ferrario has already dropped, but the ministers Fernán Quirós (the one who best measures together with Jorge Macri) and Soledad Acuña remain for now.
Ramiro Marra (or whoever competes on behalf of Milei)
: in the case of libertarians, the damage seems very clear, perhaps above other cases.
Today
the space is summed up in what Javier Milei generates
and a powerful "drag" was expected for his candidate for head of government if the elections went together.
Mauricio Macri?
A priori he appears here because he could not impose the voting system that he preferred and it has not yet been confirmed that the PRO candidate for head of government is his cousin, as he promotes.
But to finish analyzing the impact, as in the case of Larreta, we will have to wait for the counting of the votes.
There are those who believe that the former president should not have gotten out of the presidential dispute without agreeing to these terms with his former chief of staff.
In any case, everyone will be attentive to his movements in the face of the national dispute.
Beyond the personal electoral run, Macri
has an unquestionable predicament within the space and promised a half-neutrality
.
What happens if this new rift with Larreta brings him closer to Bullrich or Vidal?
look also
New electoral survey: striking triple tie and strong impact by the departure of Mauricio Macri
Cristina now fears that Kicillof will lose and Larreta has already made a momentous decision
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