If the margin of error (+/- 2%) is taken into account, one could speak of a
three-way tie
.
Quadruple, if the undecided are included.
This central novelty brings the
latest survey that came to Cristina Kirchner
in the face of the
2023 elections
and that
Clarín
advances this Tuesday.
The parity, of course, is between the
three main forces
that are preparing to dispute the presidential elections: the
Frente de Todos
,
Together for Change
and the
Libertarians of Javier Milei
.
The study is from
Analogías
, the head pollster of the Instituto Patria.
Between March 28 and 31, the consultancy made 2,658 telephone interviews throughout the country.
The data on Milei's growth had already been reported by this newspaper over the weekend, with another poll also close to the ruling party, from the
Analytical Intelligence
firm , and which raised a bid of three.
open and uncertain
"Which space do you think you are going to support in this year's presidential elections?"
, asks
Analogías
in the electoral chapter of the study.
The Frente de Todos "of Alberto and Cristina" appears ahead with 25.2%, followed by Juntos por el Cambio "of Macri, Bullrich and Larreta" with 24.5% and by "the right of Javier Milei" with 20, 7%. The undecided ("don't know") sneak into the middle, with 21.1%. And they complete "blank" 5% and Left Front 3.5%.
When looking at the breakdown by groups (gender, age and educational level), the growth of the deputy from La Libertad Avanza is corroborated by some key data: Milei is the most voted
among men (27.5%) and 16-year-olds to 29 years (34.3%)
.
High alert for the crack.
The
ruling party
achieves its best numbers among women (27.2%), those
over 60 (28.8%)
and those who have only
completed primary education (28.7%)
.
Together for Change
, meanwhile, reached its peak among those
over 60 (32.7%)
.
Participation and voting decision
Before getting into the raw electoral data, the survey asks about
expectations
.
With these conclusions:
"We asked those surveyed if they maintain
hope that the situation in Argentina will improve after
this year's elections. 31% responded that they have 'A lot or enough' hope; 33% 'little' hope and almost 28%, 'none'".
"The response profile is relatively homogeneous from the sociodemographic point of view, although it presents very marked differences in the opening by segment of political opinion: the
respondents with firmly pro-government opinions are the only ones who express favorable differentials of 'hope'
for the changes that are taking place." occur after the election.
"Almost 64% of the 'governmentists' responded that they have 'a lot or quite a lot' of hope that the policy will improve the situation in Argentina. In the rest
of the segments
the response pattern is reversed and the
lack of expectations is very predominant
".
"Regarding
this year's
electoral participation
, 44%
of those surveyed anticipate that it will be
'High or Very High'
,
37%
that it will be
'Low or Very Low'
and, once again, those surveyed with pro-government opinions are the ones who most expectations have regarding a high participation in the elections".
"Finally,
48% of those surveyed stated that they had already decided which force they would vote for
; the rest of the responses were distributed temporarily until election day."
look too
War of polls in the City: what the last 5 studies say about the fight that reveals Macri and Larreta
New electoral survey: striking triple tie and strong impact by the departure of Mauricio Macri