Is a ceasefire in the Ukraine war within reach?
The ISW suspects a proposal from Russia.
Because of the expected Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Munich/Moscow - They called for a ceasefire in the Ukraine war - at least: tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets this Easter Monday (April 10) during the Easter marches throughout Germany.
According to the organizers, there were 120 protest actions, for example in Frankfurt am Main or in Leipzig.
Ukraine war: will Russia propose a ceasefire at Easter?
Irrespective of this: will there really be such a ceasefire between the Black Sea, the hard-fought Donbass and Kharkiv in just a few days?
Or at least a suggestion?
If the much-cited Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has its way, an initiative could come from Moscow.
Namely for the Orthodox Easter (April 16).
The Kremlin could demand a pause in hostilities "out of respect for the orthodox religion, although Russia has shown no such respect for religion in the areas occupied by its forces," the US think-tank quoted an unnamed Washington source as saying.
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Will the arms around the Ukraine war soon be at least temporarily rested?
(symbol photo)
© IMAGO/Evgeny Biyatov
“The Kremlin could call for a ceasefire at Easter because such a pause would disproportionately benefit Russian troops,” explains the ISW in its analysis.
Moscow could not only derive a military advantage from this, but in its arguments it could also portray Russian President Vladimir Putin as "the true protector of the Christian faith," the report goes on to say.
Ukraine news: Will Moscow propose a ceasefire to Kiev?
The Russian leadership has already tried once to call for ceasefires on religious holidays, thereby "influencing the situation at the front," explains the ISW.
The Kremlin proposed a ceasefire on Orthodox Christmas (January 7), but Kiev did not agree.
Even then, the Russian army - which is constantly losing tanks and planes - was in a difficult starting position, writes the ISW.
The Kremlin wanted to give its troops a breather for an upcoming offensive.
But (also) this plan failed because of the resistance of the Ukrainians.
Western experts and Ukrainian officials have long predicted a counter-offensive by Ukrainian forces in the spring.
The assessment is based not least on the delivery of further heavy weapons from the West.
Germany recently handed over 18 Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Kiev, and eight "Leos" arrived from Canada.
Six Leopard 2 tanks also come from Finland.
The USA is currently providing 59 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Berlin is also supplying 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles in addition to the "Leos".
The ISW wrote in a previous analysis that the "conditions for a Ukrainian counter-offensive" should have been created by the end of March.
So would Ukraine even agree to a ceasefire on Orthodox Easter?
According to the US news magazine
Newsweek,
around 78 percent of the Ukrainian population were Orthodox Christians in 2019.
Ceasefire in the Ukraine war?
Moscow's calculations could be behind it
According to the ISW, a proposal by Moscow to temporarily lay down the weapons could be based on the calculation of delaying the said counter-offensive and giving its own troops more time to set up defense lines after, for example, an elite regiment from Kostroma in the Ukraine had suffered brutal casualties.
(pm)
List of rubrics: © IMAGO/Evgeny Biyatov
