Putin's nuclear lesson - Why the Kremlin chief is now toying with the nuclear weapons treaty

Vladimir Putin actually knows the advantages of arms control.

Nevertheless, he plays with the nuclear weapons treaties - and drives the USA before him.

• Vladimir Putin showed early in his presidency that he knows the value of arms control agreements.

• Nevertheless, in the Ukraine war, Russia is playing again on the "New START" agreement on nuclear weapons.

• In doing so, Putin is following a calculus and is driving the United States ahead of him, analyzes political scientist Amy Nelson.

• This article is available in German for the first time – it was first published in

  Foreign Policy

  magazine on March 22, 2023 .

WASHINGTON, DC – Speaking to Russia's Federal Assembly in February, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will no longer allow US on-site inspections of its nuclear arsenal.

These inspections are mandated by the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), a bilateral agreement between the United States and Russia that limits the total number of nuclear warheads and delivery systems on either side.

In verifying compliance, the treaty relies in part on assessments by visiting delegations from each country to each other's military installations to count warheads, bombs and missiles.

During the corona pandemic, these inspections were suspended.

Since late 2022, the United States had asked for talks to resume, but Russia had refused and never provided an official response.

In February, the United States accused Russia of not complying with the treaty because inspections did not resume and there was no new treaty implementation body meeting.

Putin finally responded in a speech last month.

It described the visit of a US inspection team to the Russian nuclear weapons facilities in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine (which Putin still sees as a reaction to a Western provocation) as a "theatre of the absurd".

Putin and his nuclear arsenal: Is "New START" the last domino in arms control?

Some have wondered if Putin's latest move is a sign that more trouble is on the way for the treaty.

In recent years, Russia has withdrawn from, stopped implementing or violated numerous arms control treaties.

This form of arms control erosion might lead one to believe that New START is simply the last domino to fall.

Some analysts even fear that by halting the investigation, Putin may be attempting to persuade the United States to pull out of New START altogether.

But his motivations for refusing inspections could be more complicated.

Certainly Putin is aware of the security benefits of arms control.

In fact, he has proven time and time again that he has a deep understanding of US-Russia nuclear relations.

And he seems to know that both the US and Russia benefit from New START.

But he also seems to think that the political benefits of tinkering with arms control treaties far outweigh the strategic benefits.

For Putin, the politicization of arms control is useful to hit the United States where it hurts - and to score points domestically.

Putin understands the nuclear weapons control treaty well - he's still playing with it

The problem with strategic stability is that once you understand it, it's hard to stop understanding.

You can't ignore them, so to speak.

And Putin's past concerns about comprehensive missile defenses suggest that he is well acquainted with the complex calculations underlying the US-Russia Strategic Stability Agreement.

However, the fact that both the United States and Russia will benefit strategically from the treaty is unlikely to impress Putin — he knows how it works because he helped develop it.

The problem is that the strategic stability the treaty offers is of comparatively little value to Putin right now.

Strategic stability means that neither side would benefit from striking first.

And that neither side could completely defeat the other side's nuclear forces.

In this way, both sides can prevent the other side from attacking - by assuring each other of destruction.

This concept has guided nuclear arms control for decades, and there is enough evidence that Putin really understands these basic concepts.

When he's not using arms control to convey a political message.

Putin's meaningful speech in 2000 - difficult negotiations with the USA followed

At the beginning of his first presidency in March 2000, Putin gave a speech to Russian nuclear scientists in which he called for strengthening the stability of Russia's nuclear arsenal.

At the same time, he spoke out in favor of strategic armaments reduction.

Referring to the previous negotiations on the START II and START III arms control treaties, Putin stated that he was striving for this stability in order “to make our world safer and to reduce the excess of weapons.” to continue restricting strategic offensive arms.

In doing so, Putin showed that he is aware of the potential nuclear risks and understands the importance of arms control in order to reduce them.

Two months later, Putin and then-US President Bill Clinton met for an arms control summit, but there was no progress as the US sought a more comprehensive missile defense.

Since Putin rejected this for strategic reasons and was not sure whether such a US defense system was not already a political or scientific reality, an agreement was no longer an option for him.

He feared that a state-of-the-art US missile defense system would render Russian offensive weapons ineffective, giving the United States a first-strike advantage.

In so doing, Putin showed that he understands and is committed to the basic concepts of strategic stability through limited defenses: when one side is unable to threaten the other with a nuclear attack, the “balance of terror” is shaken , because the side with the stronger means of defense is no longer equally deterrable.

Nevertheless, Putin was still very interested in strategic arms reduction, as he feared that the then Russian ICBMs would no longer be operational in ten years.

Either missiles would have to be replaced or the US arsenal reduced to maintain parity (that is, both sides have the same number of weapons to support strategic stability).

Putin was already at odds with George HW Bush over nuclear weapons - and a US missile defense system

Four months later, in September 2000, Putin and Clinton met again to discuss a number of issues, including arms control.

That meeting proved more successful, leading to the signing of a document in which the two countries pledged to improve "the strategic security of nuclear weapons" through information sharing.

Early warning information about rocket and space launches should be exchanged in a newly created joint US-Russian data exchange center in Moscow.

In addition, the two leaders discussed possible START III negotiations, with Clinton making it clear that concessions on additional US missile defense systems would be a prerequisite for those talks.

He also pointed out

Just as then-Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev had opposed the Reagan administration's plans to build a comprehensive missile defense system in space (Reagan's pet project, Star Wars), Putin had previously opposed George HW Bush's plans for a comprehensive US missile defense system placed.

On the grounds that such a defense would render Russian deterrence - a key component in maintaining strategic stability - obsolete.

In a speech at the United Nations the same week that he met Clinton, Putin announced that it was time for the world to "end the discussion on space-based defense systems" and proposed a summit on the subject the next year ahead.

It wasn't until 2021 that Putin again showed his commitment to arms control

The nature of US-Russia exchanges has changed greatly under US President George W. Bush, although evidence of Putin's commitment to arms control remains.

Before the US exit from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) in 2001, after a meeting where the US and Russia agreed to link offensive and defensive arms negotiations, Putin said: “As we do today understood, both sides are ready to look at the question of offensive and defensive systems together.”

Putin threatened to equip missiles with only one warhead with multiple warheads if the United States withdrew from the ABM treaty.

That would overwhelm the US defense.

In doing so, he demonstrated once again that he understood the concept of strategic stability and knew that there had to be a potential threat to the United States, because he threatened to overwhelm US defenses.

In the end, he didn't carry out his threats.

The crisis could be averted.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) with US President Joe Biden at a summit in Geneva in 2021.

© Peter Klaunzer/dpa

It was not until 2021 that Putin again demonstrated his commitment to arms control as a means of ensuring strategic stability, when he agreed with US President Joe Biden on a five-year extension of New START beyond the original ten-year term.

The joint statement by the two leaders read: "The United States and Russia have demonstrated that even in times of tension, they are capable of making progress towards common goals of ensuring predictability in the strategic arena and reducing the Risks of armed conflict and the threat of nuclear war." On the sidelines of the 10th

Putin appreciates the value of arms control treaties - but even more so the use for political purposes

Given how much Putin relied on this concept when relations with the United States were better, it seems possible that he believes arms control treaties have enduring strategic value.

However, it is more likely that he considers the value of using New START for political purposes to be higher.

While the United States adheres to the notion that bilateral arms control takes place in a safe haven, immune from political vicissitudes, Putin does not share that notion.

Today he uses New START politically to irritate or anger the United States and to endear himself domestically.

In this way he has made New START a pillar of his propaganda machine.

While he fully understands the concept of strategic stability and the potential risks of a full disengagement from New START, Putin will continue to play the arms control game by his own rules.

And the United States will have to play along.

By Amy J Nelson

Amy J. Nelson

is a David M. Rubenstein Fellow at the Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy Program and Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, where she is currently writing a book on arms control.

Previously, she worked as a Policy Fellow at the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University and before that as a Bosch Fellow in Residence at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin.

Nelson received his PhD in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley.

Twitter: @AmyJNelsonPhD

This article was first published in English in the magazine "ForeignPolicy.com" on March 22, 2023 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to the readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.

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