Among the Ukraine leaks there is apparently a document that describes several "wild card" scenarios.
It's about extreme events like the death of Putin or Zelenskyj.
Washington - What's next in the Ukraine war?
How could it end, what will happen to Ukraine and Russia in the long term?
According to an allegedly leaked document, these questions also occupied the US military intelligence service.
The paper runs through four different so-called "wild card" scenarios for the continuation of the Ukraine war, up to and including the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (left) wants to "turn over every stone" to find the origin of the US leaks.
The death of Vladimir Putin is also said to be an issue in a secret paper.
© Imago (montage)
US leaks in the Ukraine war: secret paper from the US military intelligence service apparently among them
The document came to light as part of the secret papers scandal currently rocking the United States: Explosive Pentagon documents on the Ukraine war were leaked online, initially apparently on an unknown gaming platform, before making their way to more well-known social media outlets like Twitter and Telegram found.
The strategy paper of the US military intelligence service “Defense Intelligence Agengy” is now said to be among these leaked documents.
The
New York Times,
the
Washington Post
and other international media report unanimously on this, sometimes referring to the US news agency AP.
US secret paper: Four scenarios for extreme events in the Ukraine war
Accordingly, the US secret service plays through four extreme case scenarios for the Ukraine war in the document and describes the consequences that could arise from them.
The probability of the scenarios occurring is not evaluated.
The paper is "a fairly typical product" of intelligence agencies, the New York Times
report said
.
It serves to make decision-makers in the military and politics aware of the possible consequences of major events.
Four scenarios appear to appear in the secret document:
Scenario 1: Death of Russian President Vladimir Putin
Scenario 2: Death of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Scenario 3: Putin removes leadership of the Russian army
Scenario 4: Ukrainian attack on Putin's seat of government in Moscow
Secret document from the USA: The consequences of the scenarios can be very different
According to the media reports, each of the four scenarios outlines the different consequences they could have: from an escalation of the Ukraine war to no significant influence on the course of the war to a solution to the conflict through negotiations.
The
New York Times
, which first reported on the paper, uses Scenario 4 as an example: Ukraine attacks the Kremlin in Moscow.
This is a scenario particularly feared by the government of US President Joe Biden, it is said, because it could lead to a massive escalation of the conflict.
In the event of an attack on Moscow, Putin could decide to mobilize completely and use tactical nuclear weapons.
According to this information, the leaked document also contains the thought game that Russia is considering returning to the negotiating table in such a case.
According to the Washington Post,
the secret service considers scenario 3 - the removal of the Russian army command -
to be conceivable if Russian elites massively question decisions in the Ukraine war and personnel and equipment problems cannot be overcome.
Putin might then “dismiss his top military advisors,” which in turn could result in an escalation of the war.
US leak describes consequences of Selenskyj's death
What would happen if Ukrainian President Zelenskyy died?
The secret service considers it conceivable that in this case Europe would no longer supply weapons to Ukraine.
But it's just as possible that "another high-profile Ukrainian leader" will receive the same support, the
Washington Post
writes in the AP's disposition.
Volodymyr Zelenskyj - From comedian to symbol of resistance
Volodymyr Zelenskyj - From comedian to symbol of resistance
US leak on the Ukraine war apparently created for the anniversary
According to the New York Times,
the secret report
apparently dates from February 24, 2023, i.e. it was created a year after the start of the Ukraine war.
The analysis should be marked as “secret”, which is one level below the top secret classification of the US secret service.
The authenticity of the document has not been confirmed by US officials, but has not been disputed either.
However, the leaked secret service documents are still having a wider impact: there are doubts as to whether Ukraine could do much in a counter-offensive in the spring.
Meanwhile, Russia is apparently building gigantic defense systems in the war zone, which can even be seen from space.
(smu)
List of rubrics: © Imago (montage)
