The Japanese government thought in the 2010s that it had found the miracle solution to Japan's energy puzzle: building a "
hydrogen society
", by greatly increasing the use of this gas in the automobile, housing and industry.
While Japan is hosting the meeting of ministers of the G7 countries on energy and climate this weekend in Sapporo (north), here is a progress report on its hydrogen strategy, highly contested from the start and very late on its initial objectives.
To discover
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Ultra-dependent on its fossil fuel imports and deprived of a large part of its nuclear fleet since the Fukushima disaster in 2011, Japan was the first country in the world to present a national hydrogen strategy, from 2017. On paper, this colorless and odorless gas is attractive: it can be produced, stored and transported in large quantities, its potential applications are numerous and, above all, its combustion does not emit CO2.
The original Japanese plan relied heavily on hydrogen vehicles, of which Toyota and Honda were global pioneers.
By 2030, 800,000 cars of this type were supposed to circulate in the archipelago.
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Where is the plan?
It's a very bad start: from the end of 2014 to the end of 2022, the cumulative sales of these cars in Japan totaled less than 7,700 units.
The government initially hoped to see 40,000 on the roads by 2020. Despite subsidies for the purchase, these vehicles remain "
very expensive
", even compared to electric cars which are becoming ever more competitive, underlines Kentaro Tamura, an expert from the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), based in Japan.
There is also a lack of hydrogen stations, the installation and running costs of which are significant, while electric cars "
can be charged anywhere
", adds Kentaro Tamura.
In the housing sector, the results of the Japanese hydrogen plan are better but there too below the initial objectives.
Equipped with fuel cells powered by hydrogen (obtained by gas), homes produce electricity and heat: this system called "
Enefarm
" is supposed to equip 5.3 million Japanese homes in 2030. But at the end of December 2022, the total installed was only 465,000 units, i.e. three times less than the target set for 2020 (1.4 million).
“
The installation costs of this equipment are very high compared to alternative technologies such as heat pumps
,” notes Kentaro Tamura.
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Why is this strategy criticized?
From the outset, the Japanese hydrogen strategy left many experts skeptical.
It is essentially criticized for having neglected to develop a supply chain for "
green
" hydrogen, produced from carbon-free or renewable energies. Japan initially bet on "
grey
" hydrogen, whose production based on hydrocarbons (natural gas, coal, oil) emits greenhouse gases, and on "
blue
" hydrogen, which also comes from these fossil fuels, but whose CO2 emissions are captured and stored.
Europe, China and other countries are now moving much faster on green hydrogen, rare and more expensive for the moment but essential to the realization of a truly decarbonized society, worried the Japanese think tank Renewable Energy Institute in a report published in 2022.
For its part, the Japanese government has just granted the equivalent of 1.5 billion euros to a controversial project in Australia aimed at producing hydrogen from coal and then exporting it to Japan.
However, there is no guarantee for the time being that this project will lead to “ blue
” hydrogen
.
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How is the plan evolving?
The Japanese government intends to revise its hydrogen strategy by the end of May, but this should not remove doubts about its compatibility with the objective of carbon neutrality by 2050 that Japan set itself in 2020. Because Tokyo now insists on another potential application of hydrogen and ammonia (one of its derivatives): using them as fuels for gas and coal-fired power plants.
A project again controversial because it is expensive and seems very far from a real energy transition.
“
Japan is the only G7 country
” to promote this track, which aims above all to “
keep alive ” the “
twilight
” sector
of its thermal power plants, plague Hirotaka Koike, a Greenpeace official in Japan.