As the war in Ukraine drags on and geopolitical realignments in the Middle East herald the end of a cycle in a region where religious passions and oil interests clash, it is convenient to observe the development of the US political agenda.
Undoubtedly, the global strategic field is not alien to American domestic politics and, in particular, to the ability of the Joe Biden government to face the internal challenges stemming from Trumpism.
Some observers point out that the judicial summons to the ex-president in the New York Courts, related to the payment of favors to a pornography star with funds from the electoral campaign, can reinstate the old theme of violence associated with internal fracture of American society.
That conjecture also signals that the cause could favor Donald Trump's path back to the White House.
From that perspective, President Biden's foreign policy design could be undermined, particularly the large aid to Ukraine and the commitment to Taiwan.
This new act of the Trump tragedy adds to the assault on the Capitol, a chapter that has not been closed, which undoubtedly has an impact on Washington's global maneuvering capacity in unique circumstances: a war in Europe, managed by NATO, which confronts an alliance objective between Russia and China, "a friendship without limits" in the words of President Xi.
After the judicial presentation and the speech delivered in his Mar a Lago bunker, it is clear that Trump is repeating a proven performance: becoming a victim.
Providentially, while he also gains time.
A "post-Trumpist" reflection has been gaining space among the leaders of his party based on an objective: to dismantle the "Trump legacy" to make the Republican Party competitive based on a new discourse, far from the humors and whims of a character.
Since 2019, the Edmund Burke Foundation has been working on a new National Conservative theorizing -"Nat Cons"- that also adds to the Claremont Institute.
The objective sought is to overcome the old Republican establishment and Trump's exclusive personalism.
The synthesis of this thought, presented in 2022 in Miami with the presence of the governor of Florida, the Republican Ron De Santis, includes some similarities with the new European right, symbolized by Orbán in Hungary;
criticism of liberal democracy;
the appeal to the religious dimension;
the rejection of “neo-liberal globalization” because it would have benefited China;
closeness to white supremacism and includes anti-Islamic content.
While the Trump process occupies a central place, its internal competitors are paralyzed.
Governor De Santis and N. Halley (former governor and ambassador) are not in a position to abandon him, nor can they do politics by raising new flags and so it is Trump who is facing the Democrats, not them.
With this publicized return of the ex-president, the Republican Party has fallen into the hands of a strategy that immobilizes it by adhering to a discourse that expels women, youth and various minorities from the outset.
It is, in truth, a cultural kidnapping, because it is in that space where Trumpism seeks to fight.
Trump and the Republicans also speculate on the influence they exert on the judicial structure, although they run at a disadvantage in the New York Justice.
However, in recent times, dark clouds have appeared over the highest American judicial instance: the Supreme Court, which Trump was able to model in his presidency.
There the most reactionary judge, appointed by GHW Bush, Clarence Thomas, is accused of not declaring or rendering accounts of "favors" received from one of the largest donors to Republican electoral campaigns: H. Crow.
Trips, trips around the world, yachts, private planes, conflicts of interest and complaints of sexual harassment appear on the agenda of Judge Thomas, who defends himself by assuring that he was unaware of the rules that require declaring this type of "favors".
Trump is decidedly the best Republican opponent for Biden.
Both are almost the same age, but the former president is invincible in the race for rejection, while Biden is the Commander in the war in Ukraine, where the US is bound to win by leading a NATO that Trump spurned.
On the other hand, Biden, with his reindustrialization program, defends employment and competes with China based on a new foreign policy format: the Republicans made foreign policy with tariffs, while the Democrats raise the competition with Beijing in another dimension: the technological warfare that is expressed, basically, in the manufacture of semi-conductors.
Finally, the Democrats are likely to introduce into the debate an issue that Trump was unable to clear up: his ties to Moscow and Russian help in the smear campaign against his former opponent Hillary Clinton.
In a world of rivalries that are expressed in multiple spheres, it is very probable that what some define “bi-globalization” will emerge, in other words two parallel worlds.
In this scenario, the main problem of Trumpism lies in its isolationist temptation.
Carlos Pérez Llana is an international analyst and professor of International Relations.