Ukraine's counter-offensive could be delayed due to the "Rasputitsa".
Last year, the rainy season made life difficult for the Russian army.
Moscow/Kiev – A “spring offensive” by the Ukrainian army has been expected for some time, but there is one obstacle: the rainy season, also called “Rasputitsa” by Ukrainians.
The term can be roughly translated to "time of nowhere" and refers to those weeks when the weather goes haywire and turns the earth into deep mud.
Last year, the "Rasputitsa" caused problems for the Russian army when advancing.
Back then, large parts of the country were turned into a muddy swamp.
Now the Ukrainian soldiers are again affected by the heavy rain and its consequences: "Spring means mud," said a Ukrainian commander in Donetsk at the end of February in an interview with
Ntv
.
Fields and unpaved roads become impassable for sometimes months due to rain in autumn and melting snow in spring.
Tanks, troop carriers and artillery pieces often get stuck in the soft mud and are therefore largely inoperable.
It was therefore "impossible" to advance under these conditions, the commander said.
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A Ukrainian soldier takes cover in a trench near Bakhmut in the Donbass on March 8, 2023.
After a cold and snowy winter, the beginning of spring with rain and milder temperatures has brought back the mud on the Donbas battlefields.
© Aris Messinis/AFP
South instead of Donbass: Thanks to “Rasputitsa”, Ukraine could reorient itself
David Helms, a former US Air Force meteorologist, told
Deutsche Welle
that the "mud season" started earlier this year as the months of March and February were warmer than usual.
Helms predicted that the soil in southern Ukraine will begin to dry from mid-April, two weeks later in Donetsk and from mid-May also in Luhansk.
According to Helms, Ukraine could take advantage of the meantime by launching its offensive towards the south while Russian tanks are still stuck in the mud in Donbass.
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Delayed counter-offensive: Ukraine leaks are said to play no role
In addition to the rainy season, other reasons why the armed forces are waiting are a lack of ammunition and waiting for western weapons, according to a
Washington Post
report .
However, Kiev has denied the alleged negative influence of the so-called Ukraine leaks – the publication of secret war documents.
The head of the military intelligence service, Kyrylo Budanov, admitted in an interview with
ABC News
that Moscow was the only beneficiary of the data leak .
However, this will not "affect the actual results of the offensive operation".
However, Budanov admitted that the offensive had to be successful.
Even if there is currently no pressure from Western allies, without victories "sooner or later questions will arise as to whether it makes sense to continue supporting Ukraine."
(nak/dpa)
List of rubrics: © Aris Messinis/AFP