Inflation in the euro zone should continue to fall in the coming months thanks to the fall in energy prices and rate hikes, but there are still "
considerable uncertainties
", ECB President Christine Lagarde warned on Friday.
“
We expect inflation in the euro zone to continue to decline (…).
However, this prospect remains surrounded by considerable uncertainties
,” she said in a speech to the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, published on the ECB's website.
After a surge last year, linked to the rise in energy prices and the post-coronavirus recovery, inflation fell from the fall in the euro zone, thanks to a lull in the markets of the eurozone. energy and a drop in supply tensions.
Rising food prices
This movement is set to continue "
given the pressures on prices which are fading and the tightening of monetary policy which is increasingly curbing demand
", according to Christine Lagarde.
However, the “
historic wage growth
”, linked to the low unemployment rate and “
inflation offsets
”, should continue to “
support inflation
”, she tempered.
However, the ECB remains cautious about its forecasts, due to the existence of “
many risks, both upside and downside
,” warned Ms. Lagarde.
“
Stronger pressures on supply chains or larger-than-expected wage or profit increases could foster higher inflation
,” she said.
While energy prices are falling, those of food "
continue to rise
", notes the official.
On the contrary, “
tensions on the financial markets and the fall in energy prices could lead to faster disinflation
”, according to Christine Lagarde.
The same caution for economic activity: "
The prospects for recovery remain fragile in a context of persistent uncertainty
", she underlined.
Despite falling for five consecutive months, inflation remains at a very high level, at 6.9% in March in the euro zone.
The ECB does not expect a return to its medium-term target of 2% until 2025. To counter inflation, the institution has already raised its key rates by 3.5 percentage points since July and does not count on s stop there.
