At VW, BMW and Mercedes, the tills are ringing because of high car prices.
But the golden days could soon be over, experts warn.
Munich - It seems as if there is neither a corona crisis nor the Ukraine war.
The German car manufacturers reported record numbers for the past year.
In 2022, BMW generated a net profit of 18.6 billion euros on sales of 142.6 billion euros.
With sales of 150 billion euros, Mercedes achieved an operating profit of 20.5 billion euros.
According to preliminary figures, VW was able to increase sales to 279 billion euros and profit before taxes to 22.5 billion euros.
German car market: New car prices increase by 13 percent within a year
These record numbers are also due to the crisis.
Lacking semiconductors or wiring harnesses, automakers couldn't produce as many vehicles.
In view of the scarce supply of vehicles, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW were able to push through higher prices.
Car buyers in Germany had to dig much deeper into their pockets than in the past.
Deutsche Automobil Treuhand (DAT) says how deep.
Whereas an average new car in Germany cost 26,780 euros ten years ago, it was 42,790 euros last year.
Within a year alone, the price has risen by 13 percent.
German car manufacturers are threatened with the end of their soaring: Prices are expected to fall again worldwide
But the automakers' celebration may be drawing to a close.
There are signs that prices will fall again around the world.
The
Handelsblatt
gives three reasons for this:
First, Tesla is pushing the price war on electric cars.
The US company already lowered the prices for all vehicles twice this year at the beginning of April.
The more expensive Model S and X are $5,000 less each, and the Model Y has a new base version starting at $50,000 and up.
However, this price war also has an impact on the combustion engine segment.
Second, there is high overcapacity in the automotive industry.
Patrick Hummel, car expert at the Swiss bank UBS, expects global car production to reach 86 million vehicles this year.
Of these, however, only around 81 million could actually be sold.
An oversupply usually leads to falling prices.
Third, many consumers lack the money to buy high-priced cars.
This is also due to inflation, which averaged 6.9 percent last year.
If you have a smaller budget, you think twice and three times over about expensive purchases.
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VW plant in Zwickau: The production of the German car manufacturers are still working at full capacity
© Kirchner Media/Imago
Discounts on new car purchases: "The price war has only just begun"
For this reason, Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, director of the CAR Center Automotive Research, assumes that there will be a price war between manufacturers in the foreseeable future.
In view of the increasing production with a simultaneous decline in incoming orders, slightly increasing discounts can already be seen, he told the newspapers of the
Funke media group
.
For the 30 best-selling new cars with combustion engines, the discounts for sales on the Internet rose to an average of 15.4 percent in March, Dudenhöffer explained.
The discounts on the 15 best-selling plugin hybrids are similarly high.
In the case of the 15 most popular electric models, they are around 20 percent, including the state environmental bonus.
Top 10: These are the ten most-built electric cars in Europe
Top 10: These are the ten most-built electric cars in Europe
The order backlog among manufacturers is still high, Dudenhöffer continued.
But that will change and will probably be accompanied by significant discounts.
"So if you're still waiting to buy a new car, you have a good chance of getting even better prices." According to a CAR study, the first signs of market normalization are the significant increase in self-registrations by many manufacturers and dealers.
Usually these cars are marketed with individual discounts within a short period of time.
"The price war has only just begun," says Dudenhöffer.
No manufacturer can escape the wave of discounts, as otherwise one would be "segregated" from the market.
The car expert assumes that prices for diesel vehicles and petrol engines will soon fall more sharply.
Far-reaching price wars in China: BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen also have to give discounts
But not only in Germany are the prices and thus the profits of the German manufacturers falling.
China, the world's largest car market, also plays an important role.
Sales of cars with combustion engines - traditionally a domain of German car manufacturers - are falling.
On the other hand, the business with pure electric cars and plug-in hybrids, in which BMW, VW and Mercedes still have a lot of catching up to do, is picking up.
The fact that a price war has broken out in the electronics segment in China has serious consequences.
After Tesla repeatedly granted discounts for its cars, many domestic and international manufacturers followed suit.
According to
the Handelsblatt
, at least 40 car manufacturers in China have lowered their prices, including Nio, Xpeng and BYD as well as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen.
Discounts for new cars: The consequences are likely to be reflected in the balance sheets in the second quarter
The consequences of the rebates will only be reflected later in the balance sheets of the car manufacturers.
In the first quarter, the results across the industry are likely to be rock-solid to very good, says an investment banker.
In the second half of the year at the latest, however, the margins could start to crumble noticeably.
List of rubrics: © Kirchner Media/Imago