The USA sends a combat ship, China fighter jets: The situation in the Taiwan Strait remains tense.
Documents now show that Taipei would only be partially prepared to defend itself in the event of an attack.
Munich/Beijing/Taipei – Even almost two weeks after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the USA, the region is still not quiet: On Sunday, the US Navy sent the destroyer "USS Milius" through the Taiwan Straits, which China and separates the Taiwan claimed by Beijing.
Beijing regards the 150-kilometer-wide strait as its own sovereign waters;
the US, on the other hand, rejects this view.
The US Navy let it be known that the passage of the "USS Milius" was a "routine transit" through a corridor "beyond the territorial waters of any coastal state".
China's army said it would monitor the destroyer's passage.
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen met with Kevin McCarthy, Chairman of the US House of Representatives, among others, for talks in the United States at the beginning of April.
McCarthy, number three in the US hierarchy, assured her of his country's support.
China, which has rejected contacts between the Taipei government and officials from other countries, responded to the visit with a three-day military maneuver around Taiwan.
The sealing off of the island and attacks on "key targets" located there were rehearsed, as China's People's Liberation Army announced at the time.
Taiwan conflict: China sends fighter jets – and accuses the USA of “illegal” intrusion
Even after the maneuvers officially ended, China's muscle flexing in the region continued.
Taiwan's Defense Ministry registered four Chinese warships and 18 fighter jets in the country's air defense zone on Monday.
Four of the jets would have crossed the median line, the unofficial border between the two countries.
Incidents of this kind occur on an almost daily basis, and have intensified since McCarthy's predecessor Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last August.
China had respected the median line until around a year ago.
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The guided missile destroyer USS Milius photographed on board in March 2022.
© piemags / Imago Images
The United States traditionally has a regular presence in the region, with US Navy ships crossing the Taiwan Strait about once a month.
The "USS Milius" was also just a week ago at a distance of twelve nautical miles to the Mischief Reef, which belongs to the Spratly Archipelago, which is disputed between China, the Philippines and other neighboring countries.
China spoke of an "illegal" intrusion that took place "without the consent" of the Chinese government.
China and Taiwan: That's what the conflict is about
China and Taiwan: That's what the conflict is about
China's increasing threats towards Taiwan also raise questions about the democratically governed island's ability to defend itself.
US documents, which are part of a data leak that became known a few days ago, apparently show weaknesses in Taiwan's air defense system.
This was reported at the weekend by the
Washington Post
, which has the documents.
In the event of an attack from China: how prepared would Taiwan be?
According to this, Taiwan would probably not be able to prevent China from quickly taking over air sovereignty over the island in the event of an attack from Beijing.
At the same time, the leaked information reveals that China's use of civilian ferries during naval maneuvers is making it increasingly difficult for US intelligence agencies to distinguish drills from serious preparations for an attack.
So far, Western intelligence services and military analysts have always emphasized that they can detect an impending invasion long in advance by troop movements, for example via satellite.
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Ensign Zachary Bradberry on the bridge of the guided missile destroyer USS Milius in the South China Sea.
© Greg Johnson/AFP
It is uncertain how many of the findings from the leaked documents have long been known in Beijing.
Either way, what's worrying is that anyone can now easily read these comprehensive analyzes of Taiwan's defenses.
According to the US documents, Taiwan has too few aircraft and difficulties in detecting incoming missiles.
Taiwanese officials also doubt that their air defenses can "accurately detect" missile launches from China.
Also, only a good half of Taiwan's fighter jets are currently fully operational.
Plus, it would take at least a week to move the jets to shelters in the event of a missile attack.
And yet, according to
the Washington Post
, Taiwan assumes that China will use exactly this strategy in the event of an attack: to take control of the airspace as quickly as possible.
It is thus clear that Taiwan urgently needs a more appropriate defense and deterrence strategy.
Baerbock in China: Taiwan invasion would be "horror scenario"
During her visit to Tianjin and Beijing last week, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock had warned her Chinese counterparts against violence against Taiwan.
War on the Taiwan Strait would be a "horror scenario," said Baerbock.
However, the leaked documents do not provide any information on the likelihood of an attack by China on Taiwan in the near future.
Expert opinions differ.
While individual US military forces keep bringing dates like 2027 or even earlier into play, many analysts do not consider an invasion to be imminent.
Beijing itself has been saying the same thing for years: they are striving for peaceful reunification, but do not rule out violence.
List of rubrics: © piemags / Imago Images
