The soy buck 3 is not having the success that previous versions had.
Until Monday, in its first six days of validity, the volume of soybeans traded in the local market was only 776,000 tons, against 1.8 and 4.7 million tons that had been traded in the first week of the soybean dollar 2 and the 1 respectively.
In addition, in the last week before the new soybean dollar, 500,000 tons had been traded, a volume not much less than that generated by the government's measure.
In the first 7 days of validity of the soybean dollar 1, 2,691 million dollars had been exchanged, while in the first 7 days of the soybean dollar 3 the accumulated amount is
of
997 million dollars, much less than half
.
Perhaps the Central Bank was expecting another effect on the availability of foreign currency, but
no one in the local grain market was surprised by the restricted supply of soybeans
by producers.
On the one hand, it must be observed that the industry is not paying a sufficiently attractive price, the ton is around 108,000 pesos per ton, below the term market.
But there are other basic questions that explain the behavior of the offer.
The grain broker Adolfo Shaw exposes some of them.
"In the first place, we are only in mid-April, the harvest is beginning, and also it is already seen that due to the drought there will be half the amount of soybeans compared to last year, it is logical that there is little supply," he says. .
Then he adds that the producer never likes to sell what has not yet been harvested, especially in a year like this when
field yields are giving more than a surprise
, yielding volumes that are much worse than expected.
“People already have a certain number of commitments made, and that is the first thing they deliver, it is what is being delivered these days.
What is worrying this year is that to pay these debts they will have to use a greater percentage of the harvest”, explains Shaw, and then he gets into another determining factor in the weak compliance with the call to sell soybeans 3 with the dollar: “The perception of
the producer is that this will not be the last soybean dollar of the year.
Everyone thinks that the Government, before leaving, will do everything in its power so that the producer sells every last grain and leaves nothing to whoever comes.
At the same time, they think that the next government will most likely unify the exchange rate”.
In this scenario, the real incentive offered by the current initiative is the possibility of selling soybeans for a dollar of 300 pesos and buying inputs with an official dollar.
But that is where the urgency with which these inputs are needed comes into play.
Soy, it is known, is the producer's currency, and to exchange it for pesos, the offer has to be superior.
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Santa Fe lost 1.2 million hectares of soybeans, the same area as the fourth largest department in the province
