The
survey
, face-to-face, national and of
1,402 cases
, was carried out between April 5 and 15, while
Alberto Fernández
maintained the internal fiction of his possible re-election.
But it was released over the weekend, after the president confirmed that this time he will not be from the game.
And he measured
STEP scenarios without the president
, so it is a very good thermometer of how the
Frente de Todos
is standing .
The study, the first to be published after the president's displacement and analyzes
Clarín
this Sunday ahead of the
2023 presidential elections
,
It is from
Opina Argentina
, a consultancy that measures both sides of the crack.
Among his clients he has, for example, the governor of Tucumán (and former head of the national Cabinet)
Juan Manzur
and the head of the Buenos Aires Government
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
.
The firm is led by
Facundo Nejamkis
, a former employee of
Cristina Kirchner
.
Among the main electoral conclusions of the poll, the growth of Javier Milei, who is the candidate with the most votes, is confirmed. He is the only one that exceeds 20 points and, alone, it is enough for him to fight against the pairs or shortlists offered by the ruling party and Together for Change.
What is voted and when.
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2023
But before entering that terrain, the report reveals other interesting results:
- 65% believe that the crack "is an impediment for the country to improve."
- However, 53% prefer "a firm leadership capable of imposing their ideas" against 40% who choose "a leadership that generates dialogue and consensus".
-
Floors, ceilings and the numbers by space
The first electoral parameter that
Opina Argentina
shows already brings a surprise.
It is the one that evaluates
floors and ceilings of voting intention
.
The safe vote, the probable vote and the rejection.
Who leads?
The
Milei
ascendant .
The libertarian economist has
a 14% floor
(sure vote) and
a 44% ceiling
(30% probable vote is added), with a rejection (I would never vote for him) of
46%
.
He completes a 10% that "does not know / does not answer."
The latest national survey of Opina Argentina.
Electoral floors and ceilings of the main candidates.
It is
equaled on the floor (14%) by Cristina
, but the vice has a lower ceiling (28%) because it is limited by a
very high rejection (69%)
.
And
she is close to Larreta on the ceiling (38%)
, but with a sure vote of just 5% and a probable vote of 33%.
Alberto Fernández and Mauricio Macri
are included in this table
and, when their figures are analyzed,
it is understood
why they were moved
: the president combines 4% of a safe vote with 70% rejection and the former president, 4% with 75%.
The latest national survey of Opina Argentina.
Voting intention of the main spaces.
Regarding the evaluation by space, two pieces of information are confirmed: the labels of the Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio are even and far from those good old days (27% each); and the mark of the "libertarians" grows and gets into the fight, with 23 points.
Two STEP scenarios
Regarding the
hypotheses for the primaries
on August 13, he proposes two fights: one with three candidates from the FdT and three from JxC, and the other with two each.
In both trends are repeated:
- In total, Together for Change wins twice over the Front of All: 31% to 26% and 29% to 26%.
- In both cases, the most voted individually is Milei: 23% and 24% respectively.
The latest national survey of Opina Argentina.
He measured two STEP scenarios with the main candidates.
- In the
internal opposition
,
Larreta takes advantage of Patricia Bullrich
(16% to 10% and 18% to 11%).
They are similar numbers to those of another consultant that she measures for the head of government (Management & Fit), but they differ from other surveys that give the former minister above.
- In the
official internal
,
Sergio Massa appears with an advantage over Daniel Scioli and Wado de Pedro
: 12% against 8% and 6% when evaluating the three;
and 16% to 10% when they pit the Minister of Economy against only the ex-governor.
look also
Maximum alert in the Frente de Todos: with Cristina as a candidate, a survey gives them seconds in the Province
A separate poll puts libertarians 15 points ahead of the Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio