The recent
survey
reached
Clarín
through a source linked to
La Cámpora
.
Later this newspaper was able to confirm that, in addition to the group led by Máximo Kirchner, the other main terminals of the
Frente de Todos
(
Peronism
,
Massism
) also
had access to the report
.
But beyond the traceability of the route, what draws attention is the content.
According to this study,
the ruling party would be losing votes
(and many) in the heart of its fortress:
La Matanza
.
The survey is from
Articulat Consulting
, a firm with 10 years in the market and whose central contacts are in the ruling party.
Although, as they clarified in the survey, they also did work for Together for Change.
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chooses
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Between the 12th and 17th of this month, to measure the electoral pulse, they decided to concentrate on the largest municipality in the country and
whose votes explain a large part of the Buenos Aires and even national results.
More than 1,800,000 people live in La Matanza, according to data from the 2022 census. It would be like a
fifth province in votes
, within Buenos Aires and below Córdoba, Santa Fe and CABA.
Less than two months after the closing of the lists and less than four of the PASO, the pollster conducted
1,000 face-to-face interviews
in the party: it covered the towns of Aldo Bonzi, Ciudad Evita, González Catán, Gregorio de Laferrere, Isidro Casanova, La Tablada, Lomas del Mirador, Rafael Castillo, Ramos Mejía, San Justo, Tapiales, Villa Eduardo Madero, Villa Luzuriaga and Viceroy del Pino.
A third less votes than in 2019?
If an unsuspecting person looks at the table of
vote intention by space
for this year's elections in La Matanza, he would expect significant optimism in the ruling party.
"Who do you want to be the next president?"
, asks the consultant and offers
five variants
of forces.
The Frente de Todos leads with 44.1%, followed by Juntos with 18.8% and Liberales/Libertarios with 16%. Very clear advantage for the Government. However, if the results of 2019 are reviewed, the alarm bells go off in La Rosada: less than four years ago, the Fernández family reached 64.5%, against 23.5% for Macri-Pichetto. They got more than 40 points, which represented a difference of more than 300,000 votes. Beating.
The latest survey of Articulat Consulting in La Matanza.
He measured voting intention by space.
Today, by comparison,
Together for Change is relatively close to repeating that performance and the ruling party is far away
.
The following table from the survey explains the leak: the Frente de Todos would be retaining just over two thirds of the 2019 votes (67.7%), against almost 80% of JxC.
The latest survey of Articulat Consulting in La Matanza.
He measured voting intention by space.
Where does that support go? A good part to the libertarians of Javier Milei , who would be getting (always according to the
Articulat
numbers
) 11.9% of the votes that the Frente de Todos obtained in the last presidential election and 12.4% of those that it had obtained Together for Change.
The
data is extremely interesting
because it would confirm the hypothesis used by most analysts and which is also beginning to be embodied in the Government: in addition to JxC,
Milei's growth can harm the ruling party
.
internals and images
Two key chapters that the report also addresses refer to the
images
of national leaders and those
internal
to the main forces.
In the first case, two assumptions are confirmed:
the only one with a favorable balance in La Matanza is Cristina and Mauricio Macri is doing very badly there.
The
vice president
combines a positive weighting
of 51.5%
and a
negative one of 46.4%
, against
+12.2%
and
-85.4%
of the
former president of the PRO
.
The latest survey of Articulat Consulting in La Matanza.
He measured the image of the main national politicians.
The
rest
(Alberto Fernández, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, Javier Milei and Daniel Scioli) are mixed with a
similar negative balance against
.
Except for
Wado de Pedro
, with a very hard fact for those who aspire to a national candidacy: in La Matanza,
6 out of 10 have no idea who he is.
The latest survey of Articulat Consulting in La Matanza.
He measured internal in the Frente de Todos with Cristina.
The latest survey of Articulat Consulting in La Matanza.
He measured inmates in the Frente de Todos without Cristina.
Cristina's preponderance is exacerbated when internals in the ruling party are evaluated.
If the vice is on the grid, she gets 73.2% of the support.
If she is not there, the thing is distributed more, with
Scioli at the top (30.7%), followed by Alberto F. (16.9%), Massa (16.6%) and De Pedro (13.8%).
The latest survey of Articulat Consulting in La Matanza.
She measured interns at Together for Change.
In Together for Change,
the difference in favor of Larreta is striking: 68.3% against only 22.6% for Bullrich
.
This gap is in line with the theory held by the head of government and which was reflected in surveys that were recently released.
When face-to-face studies (like this one) are carried out, a public less involved in the crack and the discussion of the media is reached and the numbers of the mayor of Buenos Aires grow.
In online or telephone polls, the former Security Minister prevails.
look also
New electoral survey for the announcement of Alberto Fernández: very striking data from Cristina and Scioli
Surprise: a new survey measured the "covered" candidate of Kirchnerism