Around 1.5 million German-Turks can now cast their votes nationwide for the parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey.
Erdogan under pressure - can he count on good results abroad again?
Where do people in this country put their two crosses?
Düsseldorf/Berlin/Istanbul - The German-Turkish voters form a long queue in the morning.
"It's a pleasure, a feeling of euphoria to be there on the first day of the elections," says Dogan Sener, who wants to cast his ballot in Turkey's parliamentary and presidential elections.
In the Cologne Consulate General, which is located in neighboring Hürth, the glass ballot boxes are filled with many ballot papers on Thursday.
“I choose out of a sense of belonging to my fatherland and people.
I hope that things will continue as they have been in my country, where it is so beautiful,” says 62-year-old Sener, who grew up in Cologne.
Around 1.5 million German-Turks are entitled to vote in Germany, a good 500,000 of them in North Rhine-Westphalia.
Sabri Ayyildib is surprised by the enormous crowds in the attached polling tent.
Everyone can tick two boxes - and thus decide whether Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is voted out or re-elected.
"This time it will be close for Erdogan," believes Ayyildib.
The earthquake disaster in February will contribute to this.
"The economy in Turkey needs to be boosted," says one student.
The 23-year-old - she does not want to give her name - feels bound to both countries and is patiently waiting for her turn at the polling station in Hürth.
In Turkey, meanwhile, people are worried about Erdogan's health.
On Tuesday evening he had to interrupt a television interview because of stomach problems, and then took a break from the campaign.
This led to numerous speculations, but according to official information, Erdogan only caught a cold.
In Berlin, meanwhile, elementary school teacher Esra Yavuz is hoping for a change in politics.
"I'm voting for the people who live there and also for me - Turkey is my country," says the 41-year-old mother of two.
There is a lively discussion in the family about the election, which is considered the greatest challenge in Erdogan's political career.
He must fear for his re-election.
"People were shaken awake by the earthquake and felt the pain firsthand and saw how important a functioning state is," says Yavuz.
Part of her family comes from the badly damaged city of Antakya, where many had complained about the slow pace of aid.
Current polls indicate a close race between Erdogan (AKP) and his strongest challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu from the main opposition party CHP.
Erdogan's performance among the German-Turks, who can still vote in many places for several days, will be all the more exciting.
The Turkish-born journalist Hüseyin Topel sees a "tangible chance" for the opposition in North Rhine-Westphalia - and warns of election manipulation.
He thinks a record voter turnout in this country is quite possible.
“Through this kind of participation, the Turks in Germany feel fully valued and belonging.
They don't want to be second-class Turks." And the journalist from Hilden near Düsseldorf warns: "Extreme caution is required.
The ballot boxes abroad in particular have to be meticulously guarded by cross-party supporters of the opposition.”
If one takes the past votes as an example, the AKP can hope for success, at least with voters in this country.
In 2018, Erdogan got 64.8 percent in Germany - and only 52.6 percent overall.
"The religious-conservative milieus are disproportionately represented in Germany and well organized, which makes it easier to mobilize them," says Yunus Ulusoy from the Center for Turkish Studies in Essen.
Among other things, this has to do with the labor migration since the 1960s, which has mainly taken place from the rural Anatolian heartland - not from metropolises and coastal regions such as Istanbul, Ankara or Izmir, where secular and oppositional milieus are strong.
In recent years, however, many students, professionals and members of the opposition have immigrated - and that could change the composition of the electorate in favor of the opposition.
"Nevertheless, this should only slightly change the popularity of President Erdogan in Germany," believes Yunus Ulusoy.
AKP voters are overrepresented in the mosques.
Giving the AKP the vote, Esra Yavuz cannot understand that.
“You see all the misfortune in Turkey, but you live in a democratic country.
You have everything here, but vote for a quasi-non-democratic party in your country.” Her husband Cagdas also believes that things can get dangerous for Erdogan this time.
But: It was not the first "fateful election" in Turkey - and the outcome was mostly a disappointment for many people, despite initially high hopes.
“My father has had that hope for the last 50 years.
I don't think he will see Turkey develop the way he always wanted."
Outside of Turkey, Germany has the world's largest Turkish community - with around three million people.
Campaign appearances by foreign politicians are not permitted three months before the vote in Germany.
But something different applies to private rooms.
"One should pay more attention to the smaller social spaces in the vicinity of the mosque communities, since the people for election propaganda often meet in private," advises Hüseyin Topel.
The Ditib in Cologne, as the largest Islam association, could try to exert “propaganda” influence in favor of Erdogan, but Topel believes that it will probably not play a major role.
A lot of sentiment is being raised for the AKP via Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and Twitter.
The chairman of the Turkish Federation in North Rhine-Westphalia, Serhat Ulusoy, observed: In view of the media "overload" and the resulting polarization, it is a "question of conscience" to vote and mobilize as many people as possible for your own camp.
Entrepreneur Mehmet D. from the Lower Rhine would have preferred to postpone the elections because of the earthquake.
Progress in reconstruction is shown again and again on Turkish television, and the victims are given a lot of help after initial problems.
"Of course, this gives Erdogan plus points." dpa