Who will take power if Russian President Putin suddenly dies?
A failed assassination attempt puts Russian successor regulations into focus.
Moscow - Ongoing speculation about Putin's allegedly poor health and now apparently a failed assassination attempt - many are wondering: what would happen if the Russian president suddenly died?
A transitional procedure in the event of the death of the head of state is precisely regulated in the Russian constitution.
But experts doubt that things will be orderly after Putin's death, and there could be open power struggles.
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When will Putin's presidency end?
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© Tamas Kovacs / dpa
Putin's death: Succession settled in Russian constitution
Vladimir Putin could remain in office until 2036 - a constitutional change in 2020 had given him four more terms.
So he could run for president again in 2024 and 2030.
Given the speculation about diseases that Putin was diagnosed from afar (cancer and Parkinson's disease) and expert opinions that expect deadly assassination attempts against the Russian President, this is difficult to imagine at the moment.
Rather, the question arises as to what would happen if Putin died in office - whether due to illness or an assassination attempt.
Everything is precisely regulated in the Russian constitution, explains Fabian Burkhardt, scientist at the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies in the
ntv
podcast “Learned again”.
According to Article 290 of the Russian constitution, power is temporarily transferred to the country's prime minister - currently Mikhail Mishustin.
According to Burkhardt, he will receive “all the powers of the President”.
Putin's circle of power in the Kremlin - the confidants of the Russian President
Putin's circle of power in the Kremlin - the confidants of the Russian President
This also includes the decision to use nuclear weapons.
There are, however, a few exceptions: the interim president is not allowed to dissolve the State Duma, call a national referendum and initiate no constitutional changes.
He must order new elections within three months.
The exact date of the election must be decided by the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the Russian parliament, within the first two weeks.
Putin's death: open power struggle between the Russian elites
However, some experts doubt that the procedures enshrined in the Russian constitution will be followed in the event of Putin's death.
There could be an open power struggle between the Russian elites, who each want to impose their successor.
In an article in the American political journal Forein Affairs
, Brian Taylor, an expert on Russian politics and a professor at Syracuse University, emphasized
the power of the Russian elites when it comes to finding a successor: "In the event that Putin dies unexpectedly or leaves office, alliances between elites will be at least as important as formal rules in determining his succession."
For Yuri Zhukov, associate professor of political science at the University of Michigan, among others there are two men who, in the event of Putin's death, could try to succeed him and override the constitutional rules: Dmitry Medvedev and Nikolai Patrushev.
It will depend on which elite group will prevail in a potential power struggle.
“The Kremlin has many towers, which means there are several rival clans vying for power.
At the top of the pecking order is a clan of security services elites like Patrushev and other people with KGB/FSB backgrounds,” Zhukov told US-based
Newsweek
.
"There is also a clan of Putin's former associates from St. Petersburg, like Medvedev and Dmitry Kozak, who tend to have a legal background."
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Dmitry Medvedev
© Yekaterina Shtukina/IMAGO
Power struggle between Medvedev and Patrushev after Putin's death
Former Russian President Medvedev is deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council - a body newly created when Putin took office, whose constitutional role in the event of a transition is unspecified.
Medvedev, who is repeatedly said to have ambitions for power, could use his position in the event of Putin's death and position himself as successor.
Putin's confidante Nikolai Patrushev could also become active.
The secretary of the Russian Security Council is considered Putin's right-hand man.
Rebekka Koffler, an intelligence expert and former employee of the American military intelligence service DIA, described him in an article for the
New York Post
as the "most influential person in the Kremlin bureaucracy".
He is politically in line with Putin and would probably not act more moderately as his successor.
"Both men probably authorized the poisoning and killing of many Russian 'enemies,'" Koffler said.
War between private armies after Putin's death
In the event of Putin's death, Bild online
also
does not assume a peaceful transition to a new president or democratic elections, citing experts.
Putin drove all moderates and democrats out of the country or had them arrested.
Because of this, there will be a possible military power struggle between Putin's minions, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Gazprom boss Alexei Miller and Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin.
With their private armies, they could try to enforce their claims to power.
According to Bild online,
the Russian domestic secret service FSB, the national guard and the military, which are under the control of various oligarchs, would no longer work together after Putin's death
.
In addition, leaders in parts of the country with separatist aspirations could use the vacuum to declare their own state.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov could also take this step.
A power vacuum after Putin's death would thus lead to open power struggles and far-reaching changes in Russia.
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kasa
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List of rubrics: © Tamas Kovacs/ dpa
