In the Ukraine war, the focus is on Crimea.
Is Kiev taking back the peninsula?
According to experts, this could mean the end for Vladimir Putin.
Kiev – Crimea measures almost 27,000 square kilometers.
It separates the Black Sea from the Sea of Azov.
Connects the mainland of Ukraine with that of Russia.
With their annexation in 2014, the conflict provoked by Vladimir Putin escalated before the eyes of the world for the first time - which the West allowed the Kremlin boss to get away with.
There is no question that the peninsula is of paramount importance to both sides in the Ukraine war.
Not just symbolic.
That's why military experts believe that a recapture by Kiev's troops would mean a huge blow - not only for Russia's armed forces, but also for the powerful president in Moscow.
It all started in Crimea nine years ago.
Will it also be the beginning of the end for Putin?
Russia and the Crimea: After annexation in 1783, only handed over again in 1954
In the course of the long-prepared and loudly announced counter-offensive by the Ukrainians, the invaders apparently fear that an attack on Crimea is also planned.
"They are worried," Oleg Ignatov, senior analyst for Russia at the international think tank Crisis Group, said
of Moscow executives, according to
Newsweek .
And probably for two reasons: There is the special geographical location, which will be discussed later, and the history of Russia and Crimea.
Catherine the Great annexed the peninsula more than 200 years ago, and it was not until 1954 that it was handed over to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) under the leadership of Joseph Stalin's successor, Nikita Khrushchev.
This belonged to the Soviet Union – also known as the USSR.
When it ended, it became part of Ukraine.
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Thoughtful President: Vladimir Putin may fear for the annexed Crimea and thus for his power.
© IMAGO / ITAR-TASS
Putin and Crimea: "It was about Russia's identity"
Which was apparently difficult for many people in Russia to swallow.
According to Ignatov, the prevailing view is that it is “land not stolen but given to Ukraine without the support or consent of society”.
However, Crimea was considered Ukrainian territory: "It was part of 'Greater Russia', imperial Russia."
As a result, the renewed annexation for Moscow is not comparable to the ones that followed last September.
"When Putin made the decision to take Crimea, he built a narrative that it was different from Donbass and also from the rest of Ukraine," explains the political scientist. "Crimea was about Russia's identity."
Past and present of Crimea: Nowhere in Ukraine was and is Russian influence greater
What Newsweek
points out
is also important in this context : Since Catherine's annexation in 1783, the Russian Black Sea fleet has been stationed in Sevastapol in the south-west of the peninsula, and retired military personnel still live there with their families.
In short: nowhere in Ukraine is the Russian influence as great as in Crimea.
"It's not a myth that a pro-Russian population lives there," Ignatov said.
This also fits: in Crimea only 54 percent voted for Ukrainian independence in 1991, compared to 92 percent in the country as a whole.
The approval for the pro-Russian Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych was particularly large.
Video: Ukraine ready for counter-offensive
Crimea in the Ukraine war: "It is in fact an unsinkable aircraft carrier"
This Russian history of Crimea would probably suggest that Putin would defend the peninsula more fiercely than the occupied territories of mainland Ukraine.
But Ben Hodges cites another reason why the Kremlin is unlikely to retreat there.
"Crimea is effectively an unsinkable aircraft carrier from which Russia can launch airstrikes on most of Ukraine or missile strikes - either from the ground or from Russian naval vessels - on targets throughout southern Ukraine," said the former commander-in-chief of the US land forces in Europe in
Newsweek
the strategic role in the war.
Accordingly, a recapture would be invaluable to the Ukrainians.
And would possibly deal one blow too many to Putin.
The only question is what price Kiev is willing to pay.
Will Ukraine Attack Crimea?
Expert expects "a bloodbath"
Ignatov expects “a bloodbath” from an attack on Crimea, which in any case presupposes a previous campaign of conquest by Cherson: “You will lose a lot of soldiers there.
It's going to be a very long fight and I think they know it."
Mark Voyger, once Hodges' special adviser on Russian and Eurasian affairs, also fears a high-loss operation.
Since Ukraine had few military forces at sea, the troops would have to invade Crimea across the narrow isthmus.
The two main roads consist of shoals and swamps.
On top of that, Russia is said to have provided the paths with fortifications to receive the actual defenders who become attackers.
From the experts' point of view, however, the recapture of Crimea, on whose bridge to Russia a huge explosion occurred in October, offers the best chances from the Ukrainian point of view to shake the supposedly invincible Putin regime.
Just because of the past.
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In action for Ukraine: These soldiers could also be part of the counter-offensive in the spring.
(icon picture)
© IMAGO / Le Pictorium
Putin needs Crimea: 'Loss would seem like total collapse'
"It is extremely important for them to keep Crimea," Voyger explains in
Newsweek
's Moscow view: "The Russian leadership is extremely sensitive to the loss of Crimea because they remember the loss in 1856 - when British, French and Ottoman troops lost it defeated the Russian empire – remembered as a humiliating defeat for the Russians on their own land.” A repetition would undoubtedly be “a violent defeat” for Putin – possibly the worst in the war, which was not short of setbacks.
"I don't know what the consequences would be, from the use of nuclear weapons to mass mobilization in Russia.
But it would pose a threat to his power, to the stability of his regime.
That's for sure," Voyger looks at the consequences for Moscow's powerful man: "The loss of Crimea would seem like a total collapse, it would be chaos."
To reiterate the special importance of Crimea in the Russian narrative, he draws this comparison: “Retaking Luhansk or Donetsk would mean the end of 'Russia's world'.
But retaking Crimea would end the legitimacy of this regime.”
How does the Ukraine war end?
Politician sees Crimea as 'the last bastion of Putin's regime'
Oleksandr Merezhko also has hope that Crimea is not another turning point in the dispute, but represents the end point.
“Crimea is the last ideological and propaganda bastion of Putin's regime.
Putin started the war of aggression against Ukraine from Crimea, and the war should end with the complete liberation of Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, of course,” stresses the Ukrainian politician, who chairs the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament , in
Newsweek
.
So the experts agree: Moscow must not risk defeat in the battle for the peninsula.
Because Putin must never lose Crimea again – otherwise he might be lost.
(mg)
